Renewable energy, LNG power and hydrogen are attracting new interest from foreign investors in Vietnam. The Investor talks with Tony Foster, managing partner of Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer's Vietnam offices, about investment opportunities in these areas.
Renewable energy has emerged as an attractive investment field for both domestic and foreign investors. Among the prominent foreign brands eyeing renewables in the country are PNE AG, ThomasLloyd Energy, Orsted, Copenhagen Offshore Partners, BP, Acciona Energia, Equinor, and JERA. What do you think lies behind this interest?
The companies you mention do not necessarily have the same interests. Some may be driven purely by the prospects of profit from the project. Others may pool the project into a portfolio where the sum of its parts is more valuable on the financial markets than the individual parts.
Others may be interested in selling equipment. Some may need greater green credentials to balance other dirtier businesses that they run. Some may have more nationalistic or even quasi-governmental motives.
The common denominator is that they all believe in the future of renewable energy as a driver of the world economy and they are therefore positioning themselves as best they can as early as they can, knowing that some of their positions will work and some will fail.
Seeking approval for renewable projects, negotiating power purchase agreements, and ensuring smooth links with the country’s transmission grids can be tougher-than-expected issues in Vietnam. Do you think investors should exercise more caution and apply greater diligence?
Investors are well aware of many of the difficulties of developing power projects in Vietnam. They evaluate the risks and the potential rewards and make a decision on whether to pursue a particular opportunity.
The main questions are (i) are they aware of all of the difficulties that are likely to arise and (ii) do they have the correct inputs on the risks that they will be taking. Our experience over many years in this sector is that different entities have different processes that result in different answers to these questions. But one cannot say that one process is right and the other is wrong - if one focuses too much on the difficulties and the risks, one will never do anything in Vietnam.
The country’s controversial power development plan VIII (PDP VIII) is taking more time to receive approval than expected. What recommendations can you make about the content given that you are a consultant for investors in this field?
Trying to get PDPVIII right is about as hard an exercise in planning as I have seen in Vietnam. Weighing all the factors and risks, upfront, for a 10 year period is almost impossible to do in a manner that turns out to be correct and accurate.
In light of this, one has to ask if the planning demand is itself in the right place. Given how swiftly and unpredictably the energy world is evolving, a less static, more dynamic planning process, which allows for easier change, may be something to consider for the future.
The ratio of LNG-to-power out of the country’s future energy mix in the latest draft of PDP VIII has fallen due to government concerns about future supply and price uncertainties. What is your assessment of the investment opportunities in this area given that it has attracted the interest of big firms like AES, Tokyo Gas, Marubeni, Hanwha Energy, Korea Gas, and Korea Southern Power?
If coal is out, nuclear is not currently on the cards, hydrogen is too early, hydro is maxed out, and renewables are intermittent, the only real choices of fuel left for baseloads are domestic gas and LNG. Extraction of domestic gas from Block B/52 is complicated; the cleanliness of domestic gas in Blue Whale seems complicated. As that leaves only LNG, one can appreciate the interest in it, despite the evident supply and price issues.
What do you think about the investment opportunities to develop hydrogen fuel in Vietnam?
It is early days for hydrogen. But with the renewable resources available to the country to produce green hydrogen, it is an opportunity for the country to make a mark on the world stage. As with VinFast, the country should grasp green ambition with both hands.