Coffee export revenue in 2025 can surpass $6 bln: Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam exec

If coffee demand remains strong, it’s very likely that export prices will remain high, potentially pushing Vietnam’s coffee export revenue beyond the $6 billion mark in 2025, said Duong Duc Quang, deputy general director of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, in a talk with The Investor.

In 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 1.32 million tons, worth $5.48 billion, down 18.8% in volume but up 29.1% in value from 2023, according to Vietnam Customs. What do you expect for 2025?

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) predicts that Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2024 crop season reached around 1.5 to 1.6 million tons (equivalent to 25 to 26.5 million 60kg bags), which was a decrease of 5-10% compared to the previous crop. This is lower than the initial forecast of a 10-15% drop.

The first four months of the year saw extreme heat and drought in the coffee growing regions of the Central Highlands, causing trees to wither, branches to dry out, and beans to be smaller and fewer. In response, many farmers shifted to more profitable crops, further reducing the coffee-growing area.

From May 2024 to June 2024, rainfall returned, but it wasn’t substantial. By October 2024, the rainfall became sufficient for the coffee trees in the Central Highlands to recover from the record drought at the beginning of the year.

However, prolonged heat during the critical flowering stage and irregular rain during the harvest period caused the overall yield to still drop compared to the 2023 crop.

In 2025, MXV forecasts a significant recovery in Vietnam’s coffee production, with an expected 10% increase compared to 2024, reaching 1.65 to 1.75 million tons (equivalent to 28 to 29 million 60kg bags). More stable weather, combined with increased farmer care, is expected to boost productivity, leading to a recovery in output.

The La Niña phenomenon, expected to replace the strong El Niño in 2024, should help reduce drought concerns. This will create better growing conditions for coffee trees. Additionally, high coffee prices in 2024 will likely encourage farmers to invest more in tree care, which could further enhance supply for the new crop.

What is your forecast for global coffee production this year?

At the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year, several international organizations have forecast a 4-5% drop in global coffee production compared to the 2023-2024 crop year, due to complex weather patterns and the potential for prolonged droughts in coffee-producing regions such as Brazil, Vietnam, and India.

However, global coffee output is actually estimated to increase by 3-4%, reaching around 175 to 178 million bags. MXV predicts that the world’s coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year will grow by about 4%, mainly due to expected increases in Vietnam and Indonesia.

Coffee prices in 2024 saw a significant increase. What’s next for domestic and export coffee prices in 2025?

I believe 2024 was a landmark year for the Vietnamese and global coffee industries. For the first time in history, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and the south surpassed VND130,000 ($5.09) per kg, and the price of coffee exports from Vietnam exceeded $5,700 per ton.

This marked a crucial milestone, helping Vietnam’s coffee export revenue surpass $5 billion for the first time in more than 20 years, solidifying its position as the world’s second-largest coffee producer and exporter. These figures not only reinforce Vietnam’s status in the global coffee market but also open new opportunities for the sustainable growth of the country’s coffee industry.

Looking into 2025, I expect the coffee market to face a range of complex fluctuations. Coffee prices are unlikely to experience the same strong growth seen in 2024, but the overall price level should still remain high compared to previous years, likely ranging from VND110,000 ($4.31) to VND120,000 ($4.7) per kg. Three main factors are expected to shape the coffee market in 2025: weather conditions, supply and demand, and macroeconomic trends.

First, weather will play a double-edged role. In 2025, the La Niña phenomenon is expected to replace the El Niño pattern, bringing necessary rains but also creating the risk of frost in Brazil - the world’s largest coffee producer.

Frost in Brazil, likely to occur from July to August, could damage coffee trees during the critical 2025/26 harvest period, impacting not only that crop but also subsequent seasons. These losses could disrupt global supply and push prices higher in the medium to long term.

Second, supply and demand dynamics will continue to keep prices elevated. The impact of El Niño in 2024 caused a significant drop in coffee production in many countries, including Vietnam, leading to concerns about a continued supply shortage into 2025. Meanwhile, strong demand from major import markets such as the EU and the U.S., coupled with the rise of emerging markets like China, will help maintain high coffee prices, though it’s unlikely to replicate the record-setting prices of 2024.

Third, macroeconomic fluctuations are unpredictable. Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency could lead to major changes in tax and trade policies. These adjustments would not only affect the flow of coffee trade but also increase export costs for coffee-producing countries, including Vietnam.

Coffee export revenue in 2024 sets a new record. What’s your assessment of the outlook for 2025?

As we know, 2024 was a landmark year for the coffee industry. For the first time, Vietnamese coffee prices rose to the highest levels globally. Robusta coffee export prices surpassed those of Arabica, an unprecedented development.

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 1.32 million tons, worth $5.48 billion, an 18.8% drop in volume but a 29.1% increase in value compared to 2023. Notably, processed coffee exports grew by 35%, reaching $1.18 billion, which now accounts for more than 21% of the total coffee export value.

Looking ahead to 2025, I anticipate that the coffee market will face a range of complex fluctuations. While coffee prices are unlikely to maintain the impressive growth seen in 2024, the overall price level should remain high compared to previous years.

Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee and continues to hold a significant position in the global market due to its coffee’s unique quality and flavor, which is difficult to replicate. In addition to traditional markets like Europe and the U.S., emerging markets, particularly China, are becoming increasingly important partners, driving demand for Vietnamese coffee.

This suggests that the international market will continue to serve as a promising and growing consumption channel for Vietnamese coffee. As mentioned earlier, MXV forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee production will increase by about 10% in 2025 compared to the previous crop. At the same time, export volume is also expected to rise by around 10%, reaching 24.4 million bags.

I want to emphasize once more that the three main factors shaping the coffee market in 2025 - weather, supply and demand, and trade policies will be crucial in determining the trajectory of this commodity. If demand remains strong, it’s very likely that coffee export prices will remain high, potentially pushing Vietnam’s coffee export revenue beyond the $6 billion mark in 2025.