Donald Trump won. What’s next for Vietnam real estate market?

Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, there might be further supply chain diversification, acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, write Avison Young Vietnam analysts.

Donald Trump won the 2024 election and will start his second presidential term in the next couple of weeks. The world is now looking forward to the next four years with mixed anticipation. What’s next for Vietnam real estate market?

Vietnam among key beneficiaries in the global trade since Trump’s first presidential term

In the period of 2017-September 2024, registered and realized FDI into Vietnam increased 3.3% and 1.9% on average annually, in respective order.

Registered FDI from mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan into Vietnam trended upward in the same period. During the years of Covid-19 (2020-2022), investment from mainland China and Hongkong dipped, while that from Singapore peaked.

Manufacturing and real estate sectors continued to benefit from the shift of FDI into Vietnam, partly in line with the supply chain diversification trend which was sped up since the onset of the U.S.-China trade tension in 2018, as seen in the chart below.

During the same period, export from Vietnam to the U.S. and import from China to Vietnam grew significantly.

Real estate transactions in Vietnam accelerated, with the number of deals went up by almost 20% in the period of 2017-June 2024 compared to the pre-Trump period (2009-2016). Most transactions were recorded in the industrial, hotel, and office real estate sectors, in descending order.

Some notable new manufacturing facilities from mainland China and Hongkong which were set up in Vietnam since 2017:

What’s next?

Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, trade tension is predicted to be more unpredictable. The vow to impose up to 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods and 10-20% on all imports seem to ignite retaliation from not only China but also other U.S. trade partners such as the EU.

This, in a sense, may further the ongoing supply chain diversification, the acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and the trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, as some businesses have already relocated or expanded their production and logistic facilities in the country and probably will continue to do so in the effort of risk mitigation as well as new market penetration.

After all, they can tap into the Vietnam domestic market of almost 100 million people, and the regional market of roughly 675 million people in Southeast Asia.

However, not much anticipation can be made of whether the Trump administration is going to go to the extreme end by heightening tariffs based on the origin of goods (or the “economic nationality” of a product).

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico due to the manufacturing link to China. Vietnam, as shown in the data above, has been benefiting from the China+1 strategy, with a surge in FDI, the number of newly registered FDI projects, the number of real estate transactions, and the volume of exports to the U.S.

And Trump, in his first presidential term, had complained about the U.S.-Vietnam gapping trade deficit, threatening to impose tariffs on products from the country amid the then ongoing trade tension with China.

Trump also repeatedly said that he would impose tariffs on products if produced by Chinese-owned companies, rebutting the traditional country-of-origin rules. The question now is to what extent and how soon he can start acting on these vows.

If the Republicans win majority in the US House of Representatives, a strong control for Donald Trump and less barriers for the roll-out of his policies will be likely.

With that being said, Vietnam is inarguably one of the most potential economies in the world. With an abundant and affordable labor force, strategic geography location, relative political stability, and favorable FDI policies, Vietnam has gone through successful transformation in the recent decades.

The institutional quality has been improved over the years and much effort has been put into infrastructure development to further the connectivity and logistic efficiency across the nation.