New orders for Vietnam decrease at fastest pace in 2023: S&P Global

The Vietnamese manufacturing sector saw a further decline in April as demand remained subdued, with both output and new orders falling for the second month running, ratings agency S&P Global announced on Thursday.

S&P Global’s latest report shows Vietnam’s manufacturing Price Managers' Index (PMI) score dropped to 46.7 in April from 47.7 in March and 51.2 in February.

The index signaled a fifth deterioration in business conditions in the past six months, with the latest decline the sharpest this year. The PMI represents the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The score of 46.7 was the lowest in four months, the firm said.

“The Vietnamese manufacturing sector appears to be going through a soft patch at present, with firms finding securing new business challenging. Companies are still optimistic that output will rise over the coming year, although sentiment has faded as new orders have dropped off in recent months,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Manufacturers have started lowering their prices to try and stimulate demand, with reduced cost pressures providing some room for maneuver. In fact, input prices increased at the softest pace in almost three years,” he said.

S&P Global said the difficulties securing new orders were shown by further reductions in both total new business and new export orders at the start of the second quarter of the year. The rate of contraction in total new orders quickened from the previous survey period, while new export business fell at a softer pace.

“Declines in new orders meant that firms were able to further deplete backlogs of work, which decreased for the fourth consecutive month. Stocks of finished goods, meanwhile, increased to the greatest extent in two years,” the firm said.

Manufacturers continued to witness lower staffing levels, both through the non-replacement of leavers and job cuts in response to lower workloads. Moreover, the rate of contraction was the sharpest for 18 months.

According to the report, a decline in demand for input materials in Vietnam had led to a fourth successive shortening of average lead times. Some firms also reported that improved transportation had helped to improve vendors' performances.

Positive sentiment was reflective with hopes that current weak demand would prove temporary, with recovery taking place over the course of the coming year. “Optimism was the lowest in the year-to-date,” S&P Global noted.

The rate of input cost inflation in the country slowed for the second consecutive month in April, easing to a slight pace that was the weakest in the current 35-month sequence of inflation amid some reports of lower raw material prices.

A reduction in cost pressures and a subdued demand environment combined to result in a reduction of output prices, thereby ending a three-month sequence of inflation. Charges were lowered across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors.

On April 29, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office said the country’s industrial production expanded by 0.5% year-on-year in April, but fell 1.8% in the first four months of the year amid weaker global demand. The manufacturing sector grew 3.6% in April from March, which saw a 1.6% decline year-on-year.

Output increases sharply across ASEAN production firms

S&P Global, in another Thursday report on ASEAN’s manufacturing industries, said only Malaysia and Vietnam had registered worsening operating conditions. In Malaysia, the rate of decrease remained unchanged from March (PMI at 48.8) and modest overall.

The report said a solid improvement in the health of the ASEAN manufacturing sector was recorded at the start of the second quarter. The upturn was supported by quicker increases in both output and new orders. New business expanded for a fourth consecutive month, with the rate of increase the fastest since last September. This helped to drive the quickest growth of production in 18 months.

National PMI data showed growth across five of the seven ASEAN members covered by the survey during April, with the fastest upturn seen in Thailand. In fact, Thailand has been the best-performing nation in three of the last four survey periods. Moreover, the rate of expansion (60.4) quickened markedly during the month to the fastest recorded in history.

Goods producers across Myanmar likewise registered a sharp and accelerated improvement in business conditions in April. At 57.4, the respective headline figure hit a survey-high for the second month running.

In Indonesia, a modest improvement in conditions was seen in its manufacturing sector in April. The latest PMI reading (52.7) extended the current run of growth to 20 consecutive months, with the latest figure the highest recorded since September 2022.

In Singapore, the headline PMI posted above the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time in three months. At 51.9, the index signaled a mild improvement across the manufacturing sector following a two-month period of decline. Filipino manufacturing firms reported growth for the fifteenth consecutive month in April. However, the pace of expansion (51.4) eased further from January to the weakest in eight months.

The overall health of the ASEAN manufacturing sector improved modestly during April, with the headline figure at a seven-month high, S&P Global said. The improved PMI reading was supported by accelerated increases in new orders and output, and a renewed rise in pre-production inventories after six consecutive months of contraction.

Commenting on the ASEAN manufacturing PMI data, Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “ASEAN’s manufacturing sector recorded a stronger improvement in operating conditions in April. Companies reported further gains in new business, which in turn drove the strongest increase in production levels since October 2021.

“Price pressures moderated further, with both input costs and output charges rising at rates that are weaker than their respective averages. Moreover, following the marked deteriorations in vendor performance seen since the start of COVID-19, delivery times for inputs have improved for the second straight month in April.”

She noted: “Looking ahead, manufacturers across the region are largely upbeat, with the degree of optimism hitting a six-month high in April. Manufacturers remain hopeful for further improvements in global economic conditions.”