In the immediate future, large coal-fired power plants still need to be built, because if this source is crossed out right now, there will not be enough power for daily use, wrote economist Ngo Thai Binh.
In 1995, Vietnam installed its first 500 kV power transmission line to carry excess electricity from the North to the South.
Few people remember that in 2000 Vietnam had the lowest electricity output among the top six ASEAN members, with 26.6 TWh (1 TWh = 1 billion kWh).
Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore posted output of 98, 89.5, 70.5, 43.7 and 29 TWh that year, respectively.
Regarding per capita electricity output, Vietnam ranked eighth out of the 10 ASEAN members with 336 kWh, just above Myanmar and Cambodia.
Since 2000, Vietnam has shown the fastest power source development rate in ASEAN.
The country surpassed Singapore in 2001, the Philippines in 2006, and Malaysia in 2015. In 2017, Vietnam outstripped Thailand and was only behind Indonesia.
In 2021, Vietnam continued to rank second in the region with 244.8 TWh, just after Indonesia with 309.1 TWh. They were followed by Thailand with 186.9 TWh, Malaysia with 175.7 TWh, and the Philippines with 108.2 TWh.
Vietnam's per capita electricity consumption approximated that of Thailand, doubled that of Indonesia, and was over 2.5 times higher than the Philippines.
Vietnam has caught up with Thailand and outstripped the Philippines and Indonesia in electricity production in just a short time. It can be said that electricity growth in Vietnam is hotter than GDP growth.
Vietnam is about to catch up with Indonesia - a country with GDP three times higher and a population 2.7 times larger - in terms of power output.
Energy-consuming industries have put constant pressure on the power industry. At the moment, power demand in Vietnam is not higher than supply, as the global economy is struggling, just when demand for electricity is high and supply is at its lowest.
Looking at Vietnam's power generation sources, annual gas-fired power output in 2022 plunged to less than 28 TWh from its peak of more than 47 TWh in 2010.
Coal power also dropped sharply from more than 114 TWh in 2021 to 99.5 TWh in 2022. High coal and gas prices may affect the actual output in 2023.
The government should allow power corporations (all one-member limited companies owned by the state) to sell electricity at a price based on their buying price, thus forming a market mechanism. When that happens customers will hold a stronger position, but will have to accept price fluctuations under the supply-demand relationship. Other ASEAN countries have already done that.
Over the next few years, power shortages will continue during peak times, and it could be easy for the public to castigate EVN as the culprit. Laying the blame with the group would be easy, but would not take into account the many risks faced by the business. Heavy punishments would not bring more power generation if we do not solve the root of the problem. In short, the story of the power sector cannot be viewed from an emotional perspective.
In the immediate future, large coal-fired power plants still need to be built, because if this source is crossed out right now, there will not be enough power for daily use.
Simultaneously, gas-fuelled power requires additional investment, although it is expensive. Nuclear power must also be reconsidered, and hydropower will continue to be developed, but no longer on a large scale.
The development of wind and solar power is not just about installing wind turbines and solar panels, it also depends on the transmission network.