All three growth engines of Vietnam’s economy - investment, exports and consumption - hold brighter prospects in 2024 after a year of struggling due to weaker external demand, said Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong.
Speaking at a regular government press meeting on Wednesday, Phuong noted that economic performance has been “very positive” towards the year-end despite adverse global and regional headwinds, creating good momentum for next year.
The country’s exports have recovered, and revenues from retail sales and consumer services are growing by more than 9%, Phuong said.
Government data shows that exports in November rose 6.7% year-on-year to $31.08 billion and imports were up 5.1% to $29.8 billion. In the 11-month period, exports declined 5.9% year-on-year to $322.5 billion and imports decreased 10.7% to $296.67 billion, leading to an estimated trade surplus of $25.83 billion.
On the investment front, comprised of state, private and foreign sectors, Phuong highlighted its “relatively good” prospects. Foreign investment is likely to outperform estimates thanks to economic diplomacy efforts in 2023, particularly in renewable energy, semiconductors and other key industries.
Following the domestic capital market, the corporate bond and stock markets have experienced serious setbacks in 2023, but private investment is expected to recover in 2024 to accommodate a recovery in the export sector, Phuong added.
He reckoned that the GDP growth target of 6-6.5% set for 2024, despite similar to the five-year goal, will be challenging given global uncertainties and unpredictable emerging issues.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment is gathering comments from other government bodies on government Decree 01, which is the first of its kind to outline tasks and measures to achieve full-year targets, so that it can be adopted at the start of 2024, Phuong said.
Vietnam’s GDP expanded 4.24% year-on-year in the first three quarters while updated forecasts indicate that the whole-year growth will be around 5%.