Thailand faces $6.14 bln export loss if US tariff is 25-36%: forecast

Thailand could lose up to THB200 billion ($6.14 billion) in export value this year if the U.S. imposes new tariffs ranging from 25-36% on Thai goods, according to a forecast from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Thanavath Phonvichai, president of UTCC, noted that there remains a window of opportunity for Thailand to negotiate a more favourable tariff rate, potentially lowering it to 20%, before the duties are set to take effect on August 1. However, he stressed that a final agreement with the U.S. is far from certain.

Further compounding concerns, he warned that domestic political instability, such as a possible dissolution of parliament or the government’s failure to pass an economic stimulus budget, could slash GDP growth by one percentage point.

In such a scenario, Thailand’s economic growth could fall below 1% for the year, well under the previously projected 1.7%.

If the 25-36% tariffs remain in place for a full year, UTCC estimated that exports worth between THB400-600 billion could be affected.

The UTCC also reported a drop in the consumer confidence index, which fell to 52.7 in June, the lowest level in 28 months, amid declining public optimism.