Thailand hopes to conclude US trade talks before new deadline

Thailand is optimistic that it can finalize a trade deal with the U.S. before the August 1 deadline to avoid a 36% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump, according to Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira.

The Southeast Asian country has offered to cut import duties on most U.S. goods to zero, expand access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and increase purchases of energy and Boeing jets.

It also pledged to reduce its $46 billion trade surplus with the US by 70% within five years.

Despite these efforts, a U.S. letter issued July 8 maintained the 36% rate. Thai officials estimate the tariff can cut GDP by at least one percentage point this year.

Political instability is adding to investor concerns after the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The THB rose slightly, while the stock index dropped 0.6%, bringing total losses this year to 20%.

Economists warned of potential factory closures and job losses if no agreement is reached. The National Economic and Social Development Council said it would revise growth forecasts accordingly.

The U.S. remains Thailand’s top export market, accounting for 18% of total exports. Shipments rose 15% in the first five months of 2025, driven by front-loading of orders following a 90-day pause in high tariffs set by the Trump administration.