Vietnamese building materials, garment, seafood firms to be hardest hit by US new tariffs: broker

Many building materials, garment, and seafood firms in Vietnam, along with industrial parks, are expected to suffer a “very negative impact” from the newly-announced U.S. reciprocal tariffs, according to Hanoi-based Vietcombank Securities.

The broker (VCBS) has conducted an analysis of the potential impact on nearly 100 listed firms spanning 17 industries in Vietnam, after President Donald Trump on April 2 announced that he will levy 46% tariffs on imports from Vietnam as part of a new wave of global impositions.

The tax rate for Vietnam, effective from April 9, is among the highest, only after Laos (48%) and Madagascar (47%). However, the tariffs are expected to change following negotiations.

In its report, VCBS said it hopes that monetary policy will continue to be managed in a direction that supports businesses and aligns with the goal of sustainable growth.

According to its assessment, in the building material sector, steel giants like Hoa Phat (HPG), Hoa Sen (HSG), and Nam Kim Steel (NKG), all listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), are expected to face a neutral impact from the tariffs, as their exports to the U.S. account for only 2-10% of their total revenue.

Meanwhile, Phu Tai (HoSE: PTB) would be hit hard as its quartz stone products are primarily exported to the U.S. and Europe, accounting for 60% of total exports. A similar hit is forecast for Vicostone (HoSE: VCS), another quartz stone exporter to the U.S.

Notably, in the garment-textile industry, companies like Thanh Cong (HoSE: TCM), TNG Investment and Trading JSC (HNX: TNG), Song Hong (HoSE: MSH), Vinatex (UPCoM: VGT), and Century Corp (HoSE: STK), which have high proportions of exports to the U.S., with Song Hong shipping up to 80% of its goods to this market, would feel a severe impact.

The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that the U.S. has imposed lower tariffs on textile products from key competitors, including India and Bangladesh, putting Vietnamese exporters at a disadvantage.

In the food sector, Vinh Hoan (HoSE: VHC), a major pangasius fish producer, generates 32% of its export revenue from the U.S. The new tariffs are expected to undermine its competitive edge in the market.

Sao Ta Food (HoSE: FMC) and Minh Phu (UPCoM: MPC) are highly exposed to the tariff impact, as their shrimp exports account for a significant portion of their revenue, 34% and 27%, respectively.

In the rubber sector, Danang Rubber (HoSE: DRC), a major producer of tires that generated 28% of its revenue from exports to the U.S. in 2024, would also be under the tax pressure.

Industrial parks wiould be heavily affected due to the reduced demand for leasing by export-import companies and FDI enterprises, according to the VCBS report.

Major brokers like Saigon Securities (HoSE: SSI), which derive a significant portion of their profits from margin lending and securities investment, are expected to be less affected by sharp fluctuations in the index. In fact, during volatile trading sessions, they may even benefit from higher fee revenue.

On the other hand, smaller securities companies with a large proportion of revenue coming from stock investments, such as VIX Securities (HoSE: VIX) and Saigon-Hanoi Securities Corporation (HNX: SHS), are likely to be heavily impacted.

While transportation and oil firms, and banks would experience an indirect impact, those in transportation, real estate, retail, construction, and technology would see no or slight impact.

Some experts argue that the U.S. tariff imposition is not as alarming as it seems, as the situation will ultimately depend on the negotiations between the two parties,

“What we need to watch is the trip of Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc to the U.S. to see how the U.S. responds. Investors should not panic over the figure of 46%, or later 36%, 26%. I think it’s just a number because the real issue is on the negotiation table,” said Pham Luu Hung, chief economist at leading broker Saigon Securities (SSI).

Hung noted that in the current context, investors should manage their portfolio risks. If the portfolio is highly risky, they should restructure and focus more on domestic manufacturing sectors or those with a high margin ratio.

Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc, accompanied by executives from companies, is now in the U.S. for a high-level policy dialogue at Columbia University in New York, and a working visit to the U.S., starting April 6.