Vietnam's outstanding property credit balance exceeds $155 bln

Vietnam's outstanding real estate credit balance had reached over VND4,100 trillion ($155.2 billion) by end-July 2025, up nearly 17% against end-2024 and accounting for 23.68% of the economy's total outstanding debt, the central bank's latest data shows.

This is a record high which shows that bank capital flows continue to play a vital role in unblocking the real estate market, it stated.

In terms of structure, outstanding loans for real estate trading accounted for about VND1,790 trillion ($67.75 billion), up over 23% over the same period last year.

Meanwhile, outstanding loans for consumption related to real estate (buying, repairing houses, land, etc.) reached more than VND2,280 trillion ($86.29 billion), up 12.4%.

Notably, in Ho Chi Minh City, outstanding real estate credit as of mid-year had hit over VND1,090 trillion ($41.26 billion), making up nearly 27.5% of the city's total outstanding loans.

Compared to the same period in 2024, real estate credit surged more strongly. Real estate credit increased by only around 13% in the first seven months of last year, significantly lower than the current growth rate of nearly 17%.

This reflects the recovery of market confidence after the sluggish period of 2022-2023, and shows that policies to remove legal obstacles and lower interest rates have been effective to a certain extent.

Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, former director of the Vietnam Economic Institute, commented: “The rapid growth of real estate credit capital is a positive signal, contributing to the restart of many stalled projects. However, it is necessary to pay close attention to the quality of capital flows, avoiding the situation where banks put too much capital into speculative projects, distorting the market.”

Sharing the same view, Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council and chief economist of BIDV bank, noted: “Real estate credit currently accounts for nearly one quarter of the total outstanding debt, with the level of capital concentration being quite high. If cash flow is not well controlled, the risk of bad debt can increase rapidly, especially in the context of actual purchasing power not yet fully recovering”.

Data from the central bank shows that the bad debt ratio in the real estate sector is currently 2.43%, still within the control threshold, but the trend needs to be closely monitored.

The reason is when the interest rate level shows signs of increasing or market liquidity is difficult, many real estate loans can quickly shift to worse debt groups.

According to experts, the core issue now is not to mechanically tighten or loosen real estate credit, but to direct capital flows to the right segments.

Social housing, worker housing, and projects that meet real housing needs need to be prioritized for access to capital, instead of focusing too much resources on high-end and resort projects - which are facing liquidity difficulties.

In addition, it is necessary to strengthen close supervision of loans for real estate trading and improve the transparency in cash flow and project progress.

In parallel, solutions to develop the capital market, especially the real estate corporate bond market, are also considered a way to reduce pressure on the banking system.