2026 highly likely to mark a turning point for foreign indirect investment inflows to Vietnam: Dragon Capital exec

2026 is highly likely to mark a turning point for foreign indirect investment inflows to Vietnam as the country's macroeconomic conditions are favorable, GDP is expected to be 9-10%, and valuations remain compelling, says Dang Nguyet Minh, head of research at Dragon Capital.

The Government has set a double-digit economic growth target for the 2026-2030 period. In your view, what will be the key drivers enabling the Government to achieve this goal?

An investment-led growth model is the most practical and efficient path for Vietnam to achieve a breakthrough in the coming period, built on two main pillars.

First is public investment in strategic infrastructure. Projects such as expressways, ring roads, urban metro lines, high-speed railways, seaports, and modern logistics networks will significantly reduce operating costs for businesses. At the same time, investment in digital infrastructure and sustainable energy will provide a foundation to attract high-tech capital flows.

Second is private-sector capital expenditure (CAPEX). Credit growth across the economy reached around 16% by the end of November, while analysis of listed companies shows that long-term debt in the manufacturing sector rose 12% year-on-year, an evident improvement compared with negative growth in 2023 and only single-digit growth in 2024. This trend reflects businesses proactively expanding production capacity in preparation for a new growth cycle.

The key factor in translating investment plans and commitments into strong GDP growth lies in execution efficiency - shortening legal procedures, accelerating implementation, and optimizing capital costs.

Institutional reforms initiated in 2025 have laid an important foundation for smoother project execution. Estimates suggest that every VND of efficiently disbursed public investment can crowd in an additional VND3-4 of private capital.

On that basis, 2026 is expected to be a “year of execution,” when policy preparations and resource mobilization begin to translate into GDP growth of around 9-10%.

With a double-digit growth target, annual investment demand is estimated at around $280 billion. FDI contributes only about $24-30 billion per year, meaning more than $250 billion must come from domestic sources. How do you assess the role of the private domestic sector in filling this gap?

The participation of the private sector is critically important - not only in terms of capital scale, but also in decisiveness and execution speed. This will help accelerate the formation of key economic sectors with strong spillover effects and build national-level competitive advantages.

Notably, business confidence is improving significantly, amid stronger government policies to promote private-sector development. According to Dragon Capital’s surveys, many private conglomerates have expressed both willingness and commitment to deeply engage in large-scale infrastructure projects, ranging from soft infrastructure such as finance, data, and digital platforms, to hard infrastructure such as railways, energy, and logistics.

The key question is: where will the capital come from? To meet the substantial funding needs of this phase, capital mobilization through capital markets, including equities and bonds, will become an inevitable trend.

At the same time, Vietnamese companies will need access to long-term capital from international financial institutions and global investors. This underscores the urgent need to continue legal reforms, improve foreign investor access (ownership expansion), and enhance Vietnam’s standing on the global investment map to facilitate sustainable, long-term capital inflows.

What is your outlook for foreign indirect investment (FII) in 2026, especially if there is progress in the market upgrade story?

2025 was an especially challenging year for foreign capital flows, as unexpected global tariff policies forced foreign investors to reassess risks in highly open economies.

Nevertheless, Vietnam was among the first countries to reach tariff agreements, while continuing to accelerate GDP growth and recording corporate earnings growth of around 22%. This demonstrates the economy’s growing resilience and internal strength, as well as its declining dependence on external factors.

We believe 2026 is highly likely to mark a turning point for FII inflows, as macroeconomic conditions and valuations converge favorably.

Vietnam’s attractiveness to foreign investors stems from expected GDP growth of 9-10%, leading the region, alongside VN-Index earnings growth of 16-18% in 2026, following approximately 22% growth in 2025. In addition, market valuations remain compelling, with forward P/E of around 10x 2026 earnings, while macroeconomic stability continues to be maintained through controlled interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates.

Most importantly, the market upgrade story is seen as a game-changing catalyst. We have no doubt that Vietnam will be confirmed for inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Market index during the March 2026 review, potentially attracting $1.2-1.5 billion in passive inflows. More importantly, once officially included in the global “investment universe,” active capital inflows could reach $6-10 billion over the following 2-3 years.

How do you assess the key supporting factors and challenges for the stock market in 2026?

2025 was a challenging period, as Vietnam was impacted by a major tariff shock. Nevertheless, the economy demonstrated remarkable adaptability and resilience, reaffirming its role in global supply chains. GDP growth in 2025 is estimated at 8-8.3%, the VN-Index rose by around 32%, and corporate earnings reached record highs.

Entering 2026, the macroeconomic backdrop is assessed as more favorable. The external environment is expected to be stable, with no major geopolitical shocks, while global monetary policy continues to ease, creating favorable conditions for Vietnam to leverage its internal growth drivers. Domestically, interest rates are expected to remain relatively stable, business confidence continues to improve, and the FTSE upgrade story enters a critical phase.

On the downside, volatility is an inherent part of the market. What matters is that corporate earnings continue to grow, and the economy implements investment activities efficiently and with discipline. In such a context, market corrections should be viewed as opportunities rather than risks.

Beyond the market upgrade story, what factors will drive the VN-Index in 2026? Which sectors do you see as having breakout potential?

Beyond the upgrade factor, the core driver of the VN-Index in 2026 will be corporate earnings growth, expected at 16-18%, amid relatively stable interest rates and a broad-based acceleration of public investment. Investment opportunities are likely to be spread across multiple sectors, reflecting a fairly even economic recovery.

At the same time, the market will experience positive differentiation, as certain companies possess unique catalysts - most notably plans to IPO subsidiaries - creating additional room for reevaluation. Companies that combine accelerating core earnings growth in 2026 with distinct capital structure or asset-related stories are expected to outperform the broader market.

Looking across major investment channels - stocks, real estate, gold, bonds, and bank deposits - which do you believe offers the most attractive risk-return profile in 2026?

Equities are assessed as having the most attractive risk-return trade-off. Favorable macroeconomic fundamentals, expectations of returning foreign capital, sustainable corporate earnings growth, and a P/E valuation of around 10x - still low relative to the region - are the key supporting factors.

In addition, we expect continued reforms and significant market developments, including the establishment of a central counterparty (CCP), the introduction of intraday trading, and further relaxation of foreign ownership limits. These are expected to serve as important catalysts, enhancing liquidity and the market’s long-term attractiveness.

Real estate remains appealing, but price growth in 2026 may be slower than in 2025 as supply constraints ease and mortgage interest rates edge higher. Corporate bonds will see strong issuance demand, but heightened risk differentiation requires careful selection. Bank deposits, with interest rates of around 6-7% per year, are more suitable as a reserve asset rather than a primary return-generating channel.

Vietnam’s stock market ended 2025 on a positive note, with the VN-Index which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange closing the final trading session on Friday, December 31 at 1,784.49 points (up 1%) - its highest level in history.

The year-end rally also pushed the HoSE’s market capitalization above VND8,300 trillion ($315.6 billion) for the first time. From the beginning of the year, the VN-Index posted an impressive gain of 40.54%.