Domestic cash flow to lead Vietnam stock market in 2024: broker
Cash flow into Vietnam's stock market in 2024 will be more stable than in 2023, with domestic investors expected to be the main source thanks to low interest rates, according to An Binh Securities JSC (ABS).
In a newly published strategy report, the broker says the current one-year deposit interest rate ranges from 4.2 to 5.7% per year, equivalent to a P/E (price to earning) ratio of 17.5-23.8x, higher than the valuation level of Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index.
In addition, interest rates are likely to remain low for at least the first half of 2024 because credit demand will not recover immediately and banking system liquidity is still abundant. With the profit growth of businesses expected to improve this year, the deposit channel will be less profitable than stock investment, it adds.
With positive economic recovery prospects in 2024, interest rates remaining at a record low, and a better import-export recovery than 2023, ABS forecasts that the VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), in 2024 will surpass its peak set in 2023 and move towards 1,320-1,358 points.
In a positive scenario, ABS believes that Vietnam's stock market will continue its recovery from 2023, achieving growth of 15-20% compared to the beginning of the year. The market is forecast to conquer the mid-term peak of 2023 at 1,256 points in the middle of the second quarter of 2024, and continue to move towards the territory of 1,320-1,358 points and possibly 1,390 points in the second half of this year.
Investors should put down money on the VN-Index's mid-term support zones at 1,130-1,080 points during market corrections and lower the proportion of shares at strong resistance levels at 1,255, 1,320, 1,340 and 1,358 points, it advises.
In a negative scenario, ABS says if global conflicts spread to many key regions, severe natural disasters occur on a large scale, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delays lowering the basic interest rate until the end of 2024 and/or continues to raise the basic interest rate, Vietnam's stock market may retest the territory of 870-800 points once again.
The VN-Index rose 5.30 points or 0.45% to 1,175.67 on Friday, with trading value on the HoSE expanding 14% to VND12.90 trillion ($524 million).
- Read More
$39 mln central Vietnam software park gets resumption greenlight after two-year hiatus
An expanded software park valued at nearly VND1 trillion ($39.3 million) in the central city of Danang will come on stream again after a standstill period of more than two years.
Infrastructure - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 4:29 pm GMT+7
Northern Vietnam province okays 2 tech projects worth $83 mln from China
Vietnam’s northern province of Bac Giang has granted investment certificates to two projects worth $83 million in total, invested by Chinese businesses for the production of solar panel components and batteries.
Industries - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 4:21 pm GMT+7
Dollar continues strengthening versus Vietnamese dong
The U.S. dollar continued to appreciate against the Vietnamese dong on Wednesday amid rising domestic forex demand and the greenback’s strengthening on global markets.
Banking - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 4:06 pm GMT+7
Vietnam allows 20% offtake from self-use rooftop solar power installations
Vietnam has officially permitted excess output from rooftop solar power systems to be connected to the national grid at no more than 20% of installed capacity.
Energy - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 3:01 pm GMT+7
HCMC can’t ensure food safety on its own: Vissan exec
Ho Chi Minh City cannot ensure food safety with unilateral traceability measures because unsafe products will continue to enter it from other regions, says Nguyen Phuc Khoa, chairman of Vietnam Livestock Industry Corporation (Vissan).
Companies - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 2:38 pm GMT+7
A tale of two trends in Vietnam: Digital transformation and net zero transition
Climate change, which is a severe challenge to Vietnam, also represents a huge opportunity for the country and its corporate sector, writes Tim Evans, CEO of HSBC Vietnam, in the era of booming digitalization.
Consulting - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 2:05 pm GMT+7
IMF revises down Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to 6.1%
Vietnam’s GDP growth can reach 6.1% in 2024 and 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) October edition of its World Economic Outlook report, released on Tuesday.
Economy - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 12:10 pm GMT+7
Carlsberg Vietnam aims for net zero carbon emissions in production by 2028
Andrew Khan, managing director of Carlsberg Vietnam, has reiterated the brewer’s commitment to sustainable development at the Nordic Day - the Green Economy Forum & Exhibition (GEFE) 2024 in Ho Chi Minh City, with a pledge to achieve net zero carbon emissions in production by 2028.
Companies - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 10:55 am GMT+7
Germany’s PNE ready to deploy $4.6 bln offshore wind power project in central Vietnam: CEO
Germany-based wind energy developer PNE AG has already made all necessary preparations to deploy the $4.6-billion Hon Trau offshore wind power project in Vietnam’s central coastal province of Binh Dinh.
Energy - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 10:19 am GMT+7
EV maker VinFast issues this year's second bond batch worth $157.5 mln in Vietnam
Hai Phong city-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer VinFast has raised another VND4 trillion ($157.45 million) worth of bonds in Vietnam as the company needs capital for its ambitious expansion plan.
Companies - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 9:40 am GMT+7
Indonesia boosts solar power development
Indonesia's Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) announced on Monday that the country’s installed solar power capacity has surpassed 700 MW. However, further acceleration is needed to meet global climate targets.
Southeast Asia - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 8:15 am GMT+7
Indonesia plans three programs to become developed nation
The Indonesian Ministry of Trade is set to carry out three key programs aimed at transforming Indonesia into a developed country.
Southeast Asia - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 8:12 am GMT+7
Malaysia to focus on inclusivity, stability as ASEAN chair in 2025
Malaysia, as ASEAN Chair in 2025, is committed to building strategic trust among member nations through dialogue, diplomacy, and goodwill, according to its Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan.
Southeast Asia - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 8:10 am GMT+7
Thailand taps into tourism potential of national parks
Thai Department of National Parks, Wildlife, and Plant Conservation's (DNP) income has increased by almost 50% to THB2.2 billion ($66.36 million) in the fiscal year 2024.
Southeast Asia - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 8:08 am GMT+7
Malaysia plans to increase investment in waste-to-energy production
Malaysia’s Ministry of Plantation and Commodities on Tuesday proposed investing in new technologies and infrastructure to more efficiently convert waste from palm oil production into biomass energy.
Southeast Asia - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 8:05 am GMT+7
Investment applications to Thailand skyrocket
The Thailand Board of Investment (BoI) announced on Monday that investment applications in Thailand surged by 42% in the Jan-Sept period compared to the same period last year, led by electronics manufacturing and data center projects.
Southeast Asia - Wed, October 23, 2024 | 8:02 am GMT+7