Domestic cash flow to lead Vietnam stock market in 2024: broker
Cash flow into Vietnam's stock market in 2024 will be more stable than in 2023, with domestic investors expected to be the main source thanks to low interest rates, according to An Binh Securities JSC (ABS).
In a newly published strategy report, the broker says the current one-year deposit interest rate ranges from 4.2 to 5.7% per year, equivalent to a P/E (price to earning) ratio of 17.5-23.8x, higher than the valuation level of Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index.
In addition, interest rates are likely to remain low for at least the first half of 2024 because credit demand will not recover immediately and banking system liquidity is still abundant. With the profit growth of businesses expected to improve this year, the deposit channel will be less profitable than stock investment, it adds.
The VN-Index rose 5.30 points, or 0.45%, to 1,175.67 on January 26, 2024. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.
With positive economic recovery prospects in 2024, interest rates remaining at a record low, and a better import-export recovery than 2023, ABS forecasts that the VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), in 2024 will surpass its peak set in 2023 and move towards 1,320-1,358 points.
In a positive scenario, ABS believes that Vietnam's stock market will continue its recovery from 2023, achieving growth of 15-20% compared to the beginning of the year. The market is forecast to conquer the mid-term peak of 2023 at 1,256 points in the middle of the second quarter of 2024, and continue to move towards the territory of 1,320-1,358 points and possibly 1,390 points in the second half of this year.
Investors should put down money on the VN-Index's mid-term support zones at 1,130-1,080 points during market corrections and lower the proportion of shares at strong resistance levels at 1,255, 1,320, 1,340 and 1,358 points, it advises.
In a negative scenario, ABS says if global conflicts spread to many key regions, severe natural disasters occur on a large scale, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delays lowering the basic interest rate until the end of 2024 and/or continues to raise the basic interest rate, Vietnam's stock market may retest the territory of 870-800 points once again.
The VN-Index rose 5.30 points or 0.45% to 1,175.67 on Friday, with trading value on the HoSE expanding 14% to VND12.90 trillion ($524 million).
- Related News
- Read More
Taseco Group marks 20th anniversary, receives Second Class Labor Medal
Taseco Group in December 20 celebrated its 20th anniversary and received the Second Class Labor Medal – a prestigious award from the Party and State recognizing the company's outstanding contributions to socio-economic development.
Companies - Sun, December 28, 2025 | 12:55 pm GMT+7
Top 10 standout international events in 2025
The U.S.'s imposition of reciprocal tariffs, the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, and the AI race are among the 10 prominent international events in 2025 as selected by Vietnam News Agency.
Politics - Sun, December 28, 2025 | 12:40 pm GMT+7
Vietnam’s jewelry major PNJ to pay cash dividend, seek share bonus as stock defies market slump
Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (HoSE: PNJ) said it will pay an interim cash dividend for 2025 at a rate of 10% and seek shareholder approval to issue bonus shares in January next year. Its stock has risen against a broader market correction.
Companies - Sun, December 28, 2025 | 11:12 am GMT+7
HCMC to launch Free Trade Zone linked to Cai Mep Ha Port
Ho Chi Minh City plans to establish a free trade zone (FTZ) linked to Cai Mep Ha Port, with future expansions to Can Gio, An Binh and Bau Bang, optimizing unique local advantages while maintaining a unified management model, according to a new resolution.
Infrastructure - Sun, December 28, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Vingroup's hospitality arm appoints new CEO
Vinpearl Joint Stock Company, a leading investor and operator of resorts and theme parks in Vietnam, has appointed Ngo Thi Huong as its new CEO, starting from Friday.
Companies - Sat, December 27, 2025 | 9:02 pm GMT+7
Advisory council recommends Vietnamese government not expand monetary policy in 2026, exercise more caution
Vietnam’s National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council has recommended that the Government refrain from expanding monetary policy in 2026, adopt a more cautious approach, and coordinate monetary and fiscal policies in a balanced manner.
Consulting - Sat, December 27, 2025 | 4:01 pm GMT+7
Nguyen Thanh Phuong exits BVBank board, leads strategy board
Nguyen Thanh Phuong will step down from the board of directors at Vietnam’s private lender BVBank (BVB) for the 2025-2030 term, as decided at an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on Friday.
Banking - Sat, December 27, 2025 | 12:03 pm GMT+7
PV Gas plans over $3.8 bln investment for 2026-2030, eyes LNG infrastructure, M&A as priorities
PV Gas, the investor of Thi Vai LNG terminal in Ho Chi Minh City, plans to invest more than VND100 trillion ($3.8 billion) in the 2026-2030 period, with LNG infrastructure and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) among its strategic priorities, said parent company Petrovietnam.
Industries - Sat, December 27, 2025 | 10:32 am GMT+7
HCMC proposes adding 5 metro lines connecting Long Thanh airport, Binh Duong, Vung Tau
The Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee has proposed adding five metro lines to the appendix of the parliamentary Resolution No. 188 on piloting special mechanisms and policies to develop the urban railway network in Hanoi and HCMC.
Infrastructure - Sat, December 27, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Thaco enlarges charter capital by one-third ahead of Vingroup’s exit from high-speed rail bid
Vietnamese conglomerate Thaco Group has increased its charter capital by a third, just one day before rival Vingroup announced its withdrawal from the planned North-South high-speed railway project.
Companies - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 5:11 pm GMT+7
Le Ngoc Son appointed as Petrovietnam chairman
Petrovietnam's (PVN) CEO Le Ngoc Son has been appointed chairman of the state-owned group's members’ council.
Companies - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 4:54 pm GMT+7
Vietnamese fast food consumers spend average $5.5 per visit, chicken meals dominate
Vietnamese consumers are spending an average of VND144,500 ($5.5) per receipt at major fast-food chains, according to a December report by market research firm Q&Me.
Society - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 2:53 pm GMT+7
The aviation ecosystem game: Can Sun Group win?
Phu Quoc holds a rare advantage in having established a relatively comprehensive aviation ecosystem, comprising the expanded Phu Quoc International Airport and an airline bearing the island’s name – Sun PhuQuoc Airways.
Companies - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 2:44 pm GMT+7
Vingroup units, Idico sign strategic deal on clean energy, green transport
Four arms of Vingroup (HoSE: VIC) on Thursday signed a strategic cooperation agreement with major industrial park developer Idico, targeting clean energy supply and electrification of transport across the latter’s industrial zones.
Companies - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 2:19 pm GMT+7
Fueling Vietnam’s growth
Vietnam is heavily investing in large-scale, long-term projects in energy and infrastructure sectors which require billions of dollars far more than can be easily raised through internal business profits or tight domestic loans, writes Tim Evans, CEO, HSBC Vietnam.
Economy - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 1:38 pm GMT+7
Visa, Sun Group partner to empower personalized, data-driven tourism
Sun Group last Saturday signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Visa to elevate the travel experience of international visitors to Vietnam through digital innovation, seamless cashless payments, and data-driven marketing solutions.
Companies - Fri, December 26, 2025 | 12:21 pm GMT+7
