Earnings of listed Vietnamese companies likely up 27% in Q3: broker

A research by leading broker SSI Securities on 42 listed Vietnamese companies shows that their earnings are likely to rise by 26.9% year-on-year in Q3, much higher than the 14% growth recorded in the first half.

Q3 results of the 42 companies will reflect a clear recovery in their profit, SSI Research noted in their newly-released report.

Accordingly, earnings of these companies are projected to rise by 26.9% year-on-year in Q3, far exceeding the 14% growth achieved in H1. Profit growth compared to Q2 is expected at 2.1%.

Notably, extraordinary financial income from project transfers and divestments made a major contribution to the growth of several companies, significantly boosting overall earnings.

Vinaconex (HoSE: VCG) is expected to report after-tax profit of about VND2,445 billion ($92.71 million), up 1,563% year-on-year.

The main growth driver came from its divestment from VCR - the company that owns the Cat Ba Amatina project - with a total value of more than VND5,000 billion ($189.54 million).

SSI Research estimates that this transaction contributed around VND2,300 billion ($87.2 million) in profit. In addition, VCG also benefits from an EPC backlog worth over VND26,000 ($985.76 million) and revenue from the Southgate and Central Lake project deliveries.

Nam Long (HoSE: NLG) is set for a remarkable turnaround, with expected Q3 profit of VND345 billion ($13.08 million), compared to a loss of VND40 billion in the same period last year.

The key driver is over VND300 billion ($11.37 million) in income from selling a 15% stake at the Izumi City in Dong Nai province to a Japanese partner, alongside project handovers.

Gemadept (HoSE: GMD) continues to perform well with an estimated profit of VND580 billion ($21.99 million), up 29% year-on-year, thanks to an over 20% increase in port throughput.

The company may also record an additional one-off profit of VND200 billion if it completes divestment from its rubber business in Q3.

Beyond one-off gains, Q3 growth will also be supported by improvements in several sectors such as banking, steel, retail, and real estate.

SSI Research notes a long list of companies with positive profit growth, including STB, VPB, OCB, CTG, MSB, HPG, HSG, MWG, PNJ, DGW, MSN, VHM, along with many others in the banking and real estate sectors.

Banking remains a key growth driver as many institutions record strong earnings increases.

In the steel sector, Hoa Phat (HoSE: HPG) is expected to achieve profit of VND4,500 billion ($170.6 million), up 49% year-on-year, thanks to recovering demand and higher steel prices. Hoa Sen (HSG) is turning from loss to profit as it benefits from lower input material costs. This is seen as a positive signal for the sector’s recovery cycle after a prolonged downturn.

In the retail and consumer goods sectors, earnings are also forecast to shine in Q3. Mobile World (MWG) may see profit more than double year-on-year (up 2.11 times), driven by recovering tech demand, improved performance of its grocery chain, and the absence of extraordinary cost burdens.

PNJ is projected to grow 27% thanks to flexible pricing policies and the making use of recycled gold. Digiworld (DGW) benefits from expanding its product portfolio.

Masan Group (HoSE: MSN) is forecast to report profit of VND1,700 billion ($64.44 million), up 31%, due to stronger consumer retail operations and high tungsten prices.

In residential and industrial real estate, performance is expected to diverge. Companies like VHM, KBC, and SZC are projected to post profit growth, while KDH and GAS may see negative earnings growth.

Meanwhile, companies such as Sabeco (SAB) and Vinamilk (VNM) are forecast to see declining profits. Milk demand is expected to weaken further, especially in traditional channels, while higher raw milk prices will negatively affect Vinamilk’s profit.

For Sabeco, SSI Research analysts project lower revenue and profit due to the consolidation of Sabibeco as well as prolonged weakness in beer consumption.

However, the number of companies with declining profits in SSI’s coverage is significantly smaller than the group showing growth.

With the low base of Q3/2024, SSI Research believes that the Q3/2025 earnings picture will look more positive compared to the first half of the year.