Economic growth could add to power shortage severity: legislator

Power shortages in Vietnam could become more severe if economic growth recovers to 6-7%, said Vu Hong Thanh, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee.

Talking to the press on the sidelines of the legislature’s ongoing session, he said warnings about potential power shortages in Vietnam had been issued a few years ago, even before the Covid-19 pandemic.

He attributed the situation to the slow progress of power projects implemented by state-owned entities Vietnam Electricity (EVN), Petrovietnam, and mining group Vinacomin.

"Renewable energy such as wind and solar power should be developed at an appropriate level but not massively, as they also depend on the availability of transmission lines," Thanh noted.

An uneven distribution of power sources, with too much renewable energy in the central region where demand for electricity is low, has caused an imbalance in supply and demand, putting pressure on the transmission network and causing partial congestion, he said.

"This is also the reason why the northern region still suffers power shortages although renewable energy sources accounted for nearly 27% of the installed capacity of the entire power system and met about 15% of demand in 2022," he added.

In addition, a number of thermal power projects in the northern and southern region are behind schedule, posing the risk of power shortages due to the lack of backup power capacity, especially in the north, until 2025.

Under the newly-approved Power Development Plan VIII, hydroelectricity has little room for development while coal-fired power needs to be gradually reduced.

Hydroelectricity, one of the two main sources of electricity in the north, has seen a sharp decrease in output due to drought and lower water levels in hydroelectric reservoirs.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, currently 11 hydropower plants have halted operations, including five in the north, namely Son La, Lai Chau, Huoi Quang, Thac Ba and Tuyen Quang. This has led to a shortage of 5,000 MW in the region.

Northern Vietnam is forecast to lack 30.9-50.8 million kWh a day and the risk of power shortages throughout the day is looming. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicted that hydroelectric reservoirs will remain "thirsty" for the next 10 days.

On Wednesday, Tran Viet Hoa, director of the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam under the industry and trade industry, said that the available capacity of all power sources in the northern region, including imported electricity, was 17,500-17,900 megawatts, or about 59.2% of the installed capacity. Meanwhile, the demand was about 20,000 MW and could reach 23,500-24,000 MW in hot weather.

It is estimated that each day Vietnam is short of 30.9 million kWh, and even 50.8 million kWh at peak times. Facing power shortages, EVN has had to cut off electricity in the north. For example, at 4:30 p.m. on Monday, the power consumption capacity was cut by 3,609 MW, including about 1,423 MW at major industrial parks and 1,264 MW in residential areas.

Since the beginning of June, people in Hanoi as well as northern provinces have faced frequent power cuts. The average electricity consumption in the whole country reached nearly 820 million kWh a day in May, an increase of over 20% from April.

Vietnam posted economic growth of 8.02% in post-pandemic 2022, the highest in 12 years. The figure was much higher than the 2.58% recorded in 2021 which saw the height of the pandemic. Economic expansion in the first quarter of this year was 3.32% year-on-year.