Energy sector a bright spot in Vietnam’s Q4 profit outlook: broker

Vietnam’s energy sector is expected to post the strongest profit growth among major industries in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to MBS Securities.

MBS estimates that Q4 profits across the stock market will rise 24% year-on-year, while full-year 2025 profits could increase by about 21%.

Energy, residential property lead growth

The energy sector is forecast to be the standout performer in the final quarter, with profits expected to surge 119% from a year earlier, the Hanoi-headquartered broker said.

Hydropower output in Q4 rose 29% year-on-year as of December 23, supported by favorable hydrological conditions that have persisted since Q3. As a result, companies such as HDG and REE are expected to continue reporting strong earnings.

Gas-fired power generation also rebounded, with output rising 20% year-on-year from a low base in 2024. Wind power output increased 24%.

MBS said curtailment risks remain localized and short term, and wind power continues to be prioritized in the national power system.

Residential real estate is another notable sector, with profits projected to rise 109% in Q4. Developers have stepped up project launches, with multiple projects and sub-divisions opened for sale by companies such as Vinhomes (VHM), Khang Dien (KDH), and Nam Long (NLG).

However, profit growth is uneven across firms, as project handovers have taken place throughout the year rather than being concentrated in the final quarter, MBS said.

Vinhomes’s Q4 profit is forecast at nearly VND24.77 trillion ($942.4 million), up 115% year- -on-year, while Khang Dien’s profit is expected to reach VND536 billion ($20.4 million), up 35%.

Basic materials benefit from domestic demand

The basic materials sector is also expected to post solid profit growth of 54%, driven by stronger domestic consumption amid weak exports.

Domestic steel consumption is forecast to rise 17% year-on-year to 6.7 million tons in the Q4. Construction steel demand is expected to reach 3.2 million tons, up 9%, supported by improving real estate supply and robust public investment disbursement.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) output for the domestic market could jump 90% year-on-year to 2.2 million tons, helped by Phase 2 of Hoa Phat Group’s Dung Quat 2 plant and market share gains from Chinese steel, MBS said.

Industrial property shows signs of recovery

Industrial real estate is showing early signs of recovery after the United States officially announced reciprocal tariffs, with foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam’s manufacturing sector rebounding.

Between August and November 2025, disbursed FDI rose 11% year-on-year, while newly registered FDI was broadly flat. Export and import turnover of FDI enterprises increased 31% and 34%, respectively.

Industrial parks have seen improved leasing activity for ready-built factories and warehouses. Developers said tenants have returned to negotiations, with several memoranda of understanding signed and investors resuming production plans in Vietnam, supporting land leasing revenue in Q4.

Despite this, MBS forecasts that net profit of industrial park developers will fall 22% year-on-year in Q4, mainly because Becamex IDC (BCM) will not repeat last year’s large project divestment gains. Profits at Kinh Bac City (KBC), IDC and Sonadezi Chau Duc (SZC) are expected to rise, supported by previously signed contracts and advance payments from tenants.

Banking growth moderates

For the banking sector, MBS expects credit growth at banks under coverage to reach around 20% by the end of 2025 compared with the start of the year.

Slight increases in deposit and interbank interest rates in Q4 could put some pressure on net interest margins (NIM), but lending rates on new loans are also expected to adjust, limiting the overall impact, MBS said.

Provisioning costs are forecast to rise only 2.7% year-on-year in 2025, as asset quality has shown signs of improvement since Q2. MBS estimates that after-tax profit at covered banks will increase 13% year-on-year in Q4, bringing full-year 2025 profit growth to about 16%.

Overall sector growth is expected to slow in the final quarter due to a high comparison base in Q4/2024, particularly at large state-owned banks such as Vietcombank, VietinBank, and BIDV, the report said.