Foreign capital to return to Vietnam soon: Mirae Asset CEO

Vietnam’s efforts to achieve its GDP growth target of "at least 8%", stable macroeconomic balances, and imminent prospect of a stock market status upgrade will help bring foreign capital back to the Vietnamese bourses soon, said Kang Moon Kyung, CEO of Mirae Asset Securities.

Global capital flows are trending towards net inflows for equity and bond funds. However, the pace is slowing down and investors have become more cautious due to unpredictable global trade policies, he said.

Kang Moon Kyung cited Bloomberg data which shows that global exchange traded fund (ETF) capital flows in 2024 surged by 91% to nearly $1.758 trillion, the highest level since the peak in 2021. More than 70% of this capital flowed into equities, doubling compared to the same period last year.

The U.S. and China are the main destinations for these flows. In particular, the U.S. market saw an impressive $833 billion, soaring nearly 140% from the previous year and accounting for more than 66% of the total ETF inflows into equities, driven by the attraction of large tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and the AI trend.

By the end of 2024, capital flows tended to shift further towards China, with the value doubling from the previous year to $131 billion.

For bonds, ETF flows into this channel also rebounded, increasing by 34% to $405 billion in 2024. The U.S. remained the top destination, accounting for 67% of the net inflows.

In contrast, ETF flows into bonds in Europe saw a 26% decline after three consecutive years of growth. In the first two months of 2025, ETF flows showed more diversification and shifting amidst uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.

However, the U.S. continued to attract global ETF flows in both equity and bond markets. On the other hand, capital seemed to be withdrawing from China, with a net outflow of $6.7 billion.

At the "Pho Tai chinh" (Financial Street) talkshow on Monday, Kang Moon Kyung stated that there are several reasons for these developments.

First, the U.S. economy continued to maintain strong GDP growth with inflation on a downward trend. In particular, large-cap tech companies continued to thrive thanks to AI.

This made the U.S. stock market a “magnet” for capital. However, the slower-than-expected interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a strong USD posed significant challenges for other markets.

As for China, after several economic stimulus measures were announced, foreign capital strongly returned in the second half of 2024, reaching over $54 billion. However, foreign capital is now reversing due to unpredictable challenges arising from the trade war.

Kang noted that global investors are currently following U.S. President Trump’s new policies, and the USD may remain strong due to the "America First" strategy. Increasing protectionism may lead to inflationary pressures, changing the actions of the Fed. Therefore, key factors to watch this year will be the Fed's interest rate cuts and the USD's impact on other currencies.

According to the Mirae Asset Securities CEO, the Vietnamese stock market, with advantages such as the expected economic growth of over 8%, stable macroeconomic balances, and the imminent prospect of a market status upgrade will draw foreign capital back soon.

Mirae Asset says Vietnam is still a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI disbursement reached $25 billion in 2024, and $1.5 billion in January 2025. The country remains attractive due to its low production costs, abundant labor force, and strategic position in the global supply chain.

Additionally, the Vietnamese government is committed to attracting FDI by improving infrastructure, boosting public investment disbursement, enhancing electricity supply through the Power Development Plan VIII, and establishing funds to support investments in science, technology, and innovation, particularly in chips and semiconductors.

However, foreign indirect investment (FII) has shown a net outflow since April 2023 and into early 2025, due to the widening interest rate differential between Vietnam and the U.S., which has put pressure on the exchange rate, he stated.

Kang Moon Kyung believed that foreign investors will remain cautious until the interest rate differential narrows further. However, Vietnam has many factors to attract foreign capital in the near future.

According to the CEO, the clear driving forces are the government’s target to grow GDP by at least 8% in 2025 and efforts to have its market status upgraded to an emerging market this year through reforms to improve the legal framework, infrastructure (especially the KRX system), and corporate governance standards.

Particularly, the opportunity to upgrade the market status to “emerging” could lead to a revaluation of Vietnam's stock market, attracting new capital from funds and ETFs that track this index. Furthermore, Vietnam's stock market is currently attractive compared to many global markets, thanks to high economic growth and positive business profit prospects.

Global rating firm FTSE Russell is expected to upgrade Vietnam to an emerging market in September 2025, which could help the country attract an estimated $6 billion in investment. As for Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) upgrade in 2026, amendments to Decree 155 and the issuance of guidance for the newly approved Securities Law will be crucial factors in the coming period.

The Vietnamese government is actively developing the financial market, including increasing the stock market capitalization to 100% of GDP and the bond market size to 20% of GDP by 2025, he added.

Kang Moon Kyung noted that the stock market capitalization has decreased from nearly 100% of GDP to around 60% after a sharp correction in 2022. Therefore, Vietnam’s stock market still has significant room to grow alongside the economy.