HCMC labor market faces hiring paradox as demand outstrips supply

The labor market in and around Ho Chi Minh City is entering a strong recovery cycle, with hiring demand far exceeding labor supply, yet employers continue to struggle to recruit, highlighting a growing mismatch in skills, training structures, and labor distribution.

In 2025, the expanded labor market covering HCMC, Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau has gained momentum as the economy shows clear signs of recovery. The three localities play complementary roles, forming a multi-layered, multi-sector labor space. The three localities were merged last July to form the new HCMC.

HCMC remains the hub for services, finance, and technology, while Binh Duong serves as an industrial hub with a high concentration of industrial parks. Ba Ria-Vung Tau, meanwhile, stands out for seaports, oil & gas, logistics, and tourism. Together, this structure has created a large, highly interconnected labor market, and driven strong recruitment demand across sectors.

Statistics show that in 2025, about 191,790 people registered as job seekers in the region, while recruitment demand reached 313,681 positions, 1.64 times higher than available supply. The figures underscore a broad labor shortage as companies expand production, restore orders, and step up investment.

By locality, HCMC led with more than 136,000 job openings, accounting for 43.5% of regional demand, concentrated in finance, trade, technology and services. Binh Duong followed with over 105,000 vacancies, reflecting strong industrial hiring needs, while Ba Ria-Vung Tau accounted for more than 23% of total demand, focused on logistics, ports, engineering and tourism.

Skills mismatch persists

Despite overall demand exceeding supply, significant mismatches persist, particularly in skills and qualifications. More than 53% of job seekers in 2025 had only lower- or upper-secondary education, while those with vocational certificates or short-term training made up just 8.2%.

This gap is increasingly problematic as companies seek workers with practical skills who can operate machinery, adapt to modern production processes, and work in digitalized environments. In contrast, demand for skilled and professionally trained workers reached 178,443 positions, accounting for a large share of total hiring needs.

The paradox of “too many unskilled workers, too few skilled technicians” is becoming more pronounced, posing a long-term challenge for workforce development policies.

The mismatch also varies by locality and sector. HCMC accounts for more than 60% of total job seekers, aligning with its service-oriented profile, while Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau face high hiring demand but limited local labor supply, forcing them to rely heavily on migrant workers.

By industry, job seekers tend to cluster in traditional manufacturing and garment sectors, while hiring demand is growing rapidly in high-value services, logistics, e-commerce, and technology. This raises the risk of localized labor surpluses in traditional industries alongside shortages in emerging ones.

A gender imbalance is also evident, with labor supply skewed toward women while recruitment demand favors men, particularly in manufacturing, engineering, and logistics. Without reskilling programmes and improved working conditions, shortages in these sectors are likely to persist.

Digital shift reshapes hiring

Digitalization is increasingly reshaping the labor market. In 2025, nearly 76% of companies recruited through online platforms, reflecting a fundamental shift in job-matching practices.

While the trend creates opportunities, it also presents new challenges. Workers now need not only professional skills but also digital literacy, standardized online profiles, and the ability to adapt to modern workplaces.

Older workers, who account for more than 20% of job seekers, are among the most vulnerable if they are not supported through retraining or career transition programs.

Looking ahead to 2026, labor demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in logistics, manufacturing, trade, services, and technology. HCMC is likely to continue attracting talent in finance, e-commerce, IT, and services, while Binh Duong maintains high demand for production and technical workers. Ba Ria-Vung Tau is set to accelerate hiring in ports, logistics and related services.

In particular, the expansion of the Cai Mep-Thi Vai port system and large-scale logistics projects is expected to generate demand for highly skilled technical workers, further reshaping the regional labor market.

Despite positive prospects, structural challenges remain. The widening gap between worker skills and employer requirements is emerging as the main constraint on recovery and growth, affecting productivity and the ability to attract high-tech investment.

As a result, vocational training, reskilling, and upskilling are becoming critical solutions. Closer coordination between businesses, training institutions, and regulators will be key to rebalancing labor supply and demand in the years ahead.

HCMC's expanding labor market is facing a great opportunity for development, but to take advantage of this opportunity, the decisive factor lies not in the quantity of labor, but in the quality, skills, and ability to adapt to a rapidly transforming economy.