IMF retains Vietnam’s 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.7%

By Minh Anh
Fri, September 29, 2023 | 10:11 am GMT+7

The IMF has kept its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam unchanged from its April projection at 4.7%, below the government’s 6.5% target, though the country's liquidity, foreign exchange and inflationary pressures have eased.

After a weak first half, growth in 2023 is expected to accelerate in the second half, assuming that the real estate turbulence is contained, and exports and credit growth pick up gradually in the second semester and in 2024, the IMF said in their conclusions on the 2023 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam.

The IMF’s forecast is on par with the World Bank’s and lower than several other international institutions like ADB, Standard Chartered and UOB.

Chart from data collected by The Investor.

Chart from data collected by The Investor.

Given the opening up of the output gap, inflation is expected to end the year at 3.7%, below the 4.5% target. The current account balance will improve to a small surplus in 2023, driven partly by a rebound in tourism, says the IMF report.

Merchandise export and import volumes are expected to decline relative to 2022 due to depressed demand. The exit from the pandemic has been challenging and has left some scarring, but the economy is expected to revert to the pre-Covid growth trajectory over the medium term as reforms are implemented.

The IMF forecast Vietnam’s economic growth at 5.8% next year, and the consumer price index – a gauge for inflation – at 3.5%.

The fund noted downside risks to growth loom large. The main external risk is a deeper and more persistent weakness in external demand. While recently benefitting from some business diversion from China, Vietnam stands to lose from a slowdown in global trade due to geoeconomic fragmentation.

Domestic downside risks mostly emanate from a further deterioration of financial conditions, which could damage growth prospects over the medium term. Further energy shortages after the episodes in May-June 2023 could harm economic activity and business sentiment.

On the upside, a faster than anticipated deployment of public investment may boost growth.

IMF executive directors noted that, given ample fiscal space and limited room for monetary policy loosening, fiscal policy should take the lead in supporting economic activity if needed. They recommended strengthening the fiscal framework and budget process and increasing revenue mobilization over the medium term to support the ambitious development agenda.

Regarding the bond and real estate markets, they urged decisive steps to address remaining risks, including strengthening the insolvency framework, bolstering institutions, and increasing transparency in the corporate bond market.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Halal market presents major opportunities for Vietnamese businesses

Halal market presents major opportunities for Vietnamese businesses

The global Halal market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2030, with Malaysia alone expected to hit $113.2 billion, said Shariza binti Abdul Rasheed, Halal product manager at Maybank Malaysia.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:18 pm GMT+7

Steel major Hoa Phat to pour extra $130 mln into central Vietnam plant

Steel major Hoa Phat to pour extra $130 mln into central Vietnam plant

Vietnam’s leading steelmaker, Hoa Phat Group (HoSE: HPG), will increase investment in its Dung Quat 2 iron and steel production complex by VND3.4 trillion ($129.7 million) as part of an expansion plan.

Industries - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:03 pm GMT+7

Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects

Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects

Lung Lo Construction Corporation (LLC), under the Ministry of National Defense, has submitted investment proposals for 14 offshore wind power projects with a combined capacity of 9,000 MW.

Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 5:07 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC has been fined VND92.5 million ($3,528) for failing to disclose bond-related information as required by law.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:31 pm GMT+7

Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project

Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project

Quang Ninh province will hand over 4.9 hectares of reclaimed land to the Quang Ninh LNG-fuelled power plant project before August 11, local authorities stated at a meeting on Wednesday.

Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike

Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike

Vietnam’s seafood companies reported surging profits in Q2/2025, driven by importers ramping up purchases ahead of new U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:21 pm GMT+7

Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC

Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC

Dragon Capital Group, Vietnam's largest asset manager, has appointed Le Anh Tuan as CEO of its arm Dragon Capital Vietfund Management Joint Stock Company (DCVFM), starting from October 1, 2025.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:01 pm GMT+7

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network

Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Bank of Thailand have added new Appointed Cross Currency Dealer (ACCD) participating banks to broaden services for bilateral transactions in local currencies across the three nations, Bank Indonesia said in a statement on Tuesday.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:48 pm GMT+7

ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation

ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation

ASEAN member states are set to sign an MoU on the implementation of the ASEAN Power Grid during the bloc’s Energy Ministers’ Meeting this October.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:43 pm GMT+7

Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter

Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter

Vietnam has outranked Thailand as the world’s second-largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025, Thai PBS reported on August 3, citing the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:41 pm GMT+7

Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months

Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months

Vietnam’s export earnings grew by 14.8% to $262.44 billion in the first seven months of this year, while its import turnover rose by 17.9% to $252.26 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $10.18 billion.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:19 pm GMT+7

Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US

Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US

Malaysia has agreed to buy and invest over $240 billion (MYR1.02 trillion) in the U.S. to help reduce the trade gap between the two countries.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:08 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt

Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt

Novaland, a major real estate developer in Vietnam, plans to issue nearly 152 million new shares to swap more than VND6 trillion ($228.8 million) worth of bond principal.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 10:11 am GMT+7

Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil

Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil

Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) capital in Vietnam reached $13.6 billion in Jan-July, up 8.4% year-on-year, despite U.S. tariff concerns.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:57 am GMT+7

Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential

Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential

Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Chang Lih Kang on Wednesday reaffirmed his ministry’s commitment to enhancing cooperation with the Ministry of Energy Transition and Water Transformation (PETRA) in exploring the potential of nuclear energy.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:10 am GMT+7

Indonesia's economy grows faster than expected

Indonesia's economy grows faster than expected

Indonesia's economy expanded by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2/2025, up from 4.87% in the previous quarter, exceeding the forecasts of many economic organizations, which had previously projected a rate of less than 5%, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:07 am GMT+7