Listed Vietnamese companies almost not involved in 'transshipping': Dragon Capital

Only about 1.5% of the total revenue of Vietnamese companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) comes from exports to the U.S., meaning "transshipping" is almost irrelevant, says Dragon Capital, a leading foreign-run asset management firm in Vietnam.

Following a phone call with Vietnam’s Party chief To Lam on Wednesday, President Trump announced that the U.S. had reached a reciprocal tariff agreement framework with Vietnam, marking its first such deal with a Southeast Asian country.

Later, on Truth Social, President Trump wrote that Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff on goods sent into the United States, and a 40% tariff on any transshipping. In return, U.S. products into Vietnam will enjoy zero tariff.

The 20% tariff imposed by the U.S. on imports from Vietnam is in line with market expectations, according to Dragon Capital, and represents a significant improvement over the reciprocal 46% tariff announced on April 2.

The VN‑Index, representing the HoSE, responded positively on Friday’s trading session, rising more than 5 points, or 0.36%, to 1,386.97. The market was broadly bullish, with 204 stocks gaining and 101 declining.

All industries rose, except for chemicals (- 0.71%), real estate (- 0.67%) and personal/household goods (- 0.49%). The strongest performers were technology (+3.39%), insurance (+ 1.79%) and telecommunications (+ 1.60%).

Dragon Capital experts noted that the expected impact of the new tariff on Vietnam’s GDP is significantly lower than the 1.4-2% contraction under a 46% tariff scenario.

Adverse effects typically occur only with very high tariffs, so the current 20% is seen as an manageable economic development, they argued.

In the medium term, Dragon Capital believed that Vietnam’s economic fundamentals remain stable, with no change to its core competitive advantages. Important reforms are being accelerated, supply chains continue to shift into Vietnam, and the country’s fiscal capacity remains a strength.

Additionally, as part of the discussion between Party chief To Lam and President Donald Trump, Vietnam proposed that the U.S. formally recognize it as a market economy and lift export restrictions on certain high-tech products. If approved, this could increase both volume and profit margins of exports to the U.S.

Regarding the stock market, the fund management company asserted that the direct impact on the profits of listed companies is negligible as domestic economic activity accounts for more than 85% of the revenue of listed firms.

Moreover, the banking sector, which represents around 37% of the VN‑Index’s market cap and 60% of its total earnings, has very low credit exposure to export-related FDI. Its profits are almost entirely derived from consumer lending, domestic credit, and domestic investments.

Meanwhile, investment manager VinaCapital expected that the final agreement will apply differentiated tariffs by product group, with goods manufactured entirely in Vietnam taxed at significantly lower rates.

Although the announcement is initially positive, VinaCapital did not expect it to have a substantial short‑term economic impact, as exports to the U.S. are expected to slow in the second half of 2025 after growing nearly 30% in the first half, mostly due to strong purchasing by U.S. retailers during the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs.

FDI into Vietnam remains very strong, with registered capital in the first six months of 2025 totaling more than $21.51 billion, up 32.6% year-over-year. This is the highest level in 16 years.

While a final agreement has yet to be reached, VinaCapital believed that as long as the tariffs imposed on Vietnamese goods are not more than 10% higher than those on goods from other countries in the region, Vietnam’s competitive advantages such as labor quality, low costs, favorable demographics, and geographic location will continue to attract global manufacturers and FDI inflows for years to come.

VinaCapital also affirmed that Vietnam’s growth in 2025 will be primarily driven by domestic factors such as increased public investment in infrastructure, a recovering real estate market, and key administrative reforms, referred to by some experts as “Doi moi 2.0.” (Reform 2.0).