USD price in Vietnam hits new peak as US, Vietnam reach agreement on trade deal framework

Vietnamese banks on Thursday raised the USD price to the central bank-regulated ceiling of VND26,345, 3.1% higher than at the beginning of the year.

The State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange at VND25,091 per USD on the day, up VND21 from Wednesday.

With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is VND26,345 per USD and the floor rate VND23,836.

Banks simultaneously raised the USD price to the ceiling, which is a new peak.

At 3 p.m. Thursday, the buying rate at Vietcombank was VND26,005/USD and the selling rate VND26,345, up VND42 and VND22 compared to Wednesday.

At Vietinbank, the buying and selling rates were VND26,006 and VND26,345 respectively, up VND46 and VND25 from the previous day.

For VPBank, the respective figures were VND26,047 and VND26,345, up VND45 and VND22 from Wednesday.

Vietcombank and Vietinbank are state-controlled banks and among the Top 4 Vietnamese banks, while VPBank is a leading private bank. The above figures refer to payments via bank transfer, instead of cash.

Compared to the beginning of the year, the USD price on the official market went up 3.1%.

Hanoi-headquartered securities company DNSE said the exchange rate between VND and USD at many commercial banks has increased simultaneously following Party chief To Lam and President Donald Trump announcing that a trade agreement framework has been reached.

Lam and Trump on Wednesday stated that they welcome the agreement reached by the negotiating teams on the Joint Vietnam-United States Statement on a Fair, Balanced, and Reciprocal Trade Agreement Framework.

DNSE wrote on its website: "This statement is considered by observers as a factor supporting market sentiment and creating expectations of new investment flows, contributing to pushing the USD/VND exchange rate up in the short term."

Previously, Singaporean bank UOB on June 9 said its updated forecasts on the USD/VND exchange rate are VND26,300 per USD in Q3/2025; VND26,100 in Q4/2025; VND25,900 in Q1/2026; and VND25,700 in Q2/2026.

"We anticipate the currency will remain near the weaker end of its trading band against the USD through Q3/2025. However, starting in Q4/2025, the VND may begin to align with the broader recovery trend in Asian currencies as trade-related uncertainties begin to ease," UOB said in a release.

"The VND has stood out as an underperformer since late April amid the broader regional foreign exchange rebound in Q2/2025. VND depreciated by 1.8% in the quarter to date to a new record low of about VND26,000 per USD, the bank noted.

"This weakness is driven by a subdued economic outlook — our 2025 GDP growth forecast is 6%, down from 7.09% in 2024 - and the looming risk of a return to the steep 46% tariff should the US-Vietnam trade negotiations fail to see meaningful progress. These factors are expected to keep the VND under pressure in the near term," it added.

A a meeting on June 23, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh reaffirmed that monetary policy must be flexibly and appropriately managed to control inflation and stabilize exchange rates.

The banking sector was asked to manage interest rates appropriately, expand credit under control, and prevent "fishing in troubled waters" and speculation in gold and foreign currencies.

Vietnam aims for at least 8% economic growth this year to lay the foundation for double-digit growth in the coming years. "We will not adjust that target," the Prime Minister told the meeting.

On Truth Social, US President Trump wrote: "It will be a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two countries. The Terms are that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory, and a 40% Tariff on any Transshipping."

This is down significantly from the 46% in the original reciprocal tariff plan announced on April 2, 2025

"In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will "OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES," meaning that, we will be able to see our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff."

"SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure," he added.