Five larger economies in Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, will grow faster than China this year and next year, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest projections.
ASEAN-5 growth is predicted to rise from 3.4% last year (less than half the rate of China) to 5.3% this year and 5.1% next year, the U.S.-based institution said in its revised global economic outlook released Tuesday, U.S. time.
Meanwhile, China’s economic expansion is forecast at 3.3% and 4.6% for 2022 and 2023.
The IMF cut its global growth predictions for 2022 and 2023, dubbing the world’s economic outlook “gloomy and more uncertain.”
It said the updated outlook indicated that the downside risks outlined in its earlier report were now materializing. Among those challenges are soaring global inflation, a worse-than-expected slowdown in China and the ongoing fallout from the dispute in Ukraine.
The fund now expects the world economy to grow 3.2% this year, before slowing further to 2.9% next year. The revisions mark a downgrade of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, from its April projections. Worsening growth prospects in the U.S., China and India resulted in the IMF’s downward revisions.
In June, the World Bank cut its 2022 global growth outlook to 2.9% from an earlier estimate of 4.1%, citing similar macroeconomic pressures.
The Asian Development Bank in mid July maintainted its prediction for Vietnam's economic expansion this year at 6.5%, while revising down its forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.6% from 5.2% in April.
Vietnam's growth will be driven by continued trade expansion, the faster-than-expected recovery of manufacturing, domestic travel and the disbursement of public investment, the bank said in a release.