Vietnam economic recovery expected to speed up in H2: WB

By Quang Minh
Tue, April 23, 2024 | 4:37 pm GMT+7

Vietnam’s economy has shown signs of uneven recovery in early 2024 and economic activities are expected to firm up in the second half of this year, the World Bank says in its latest bi-annual economic update.

After experiencing a slowdown in 2023, the economy is showing mixed signs of recovery in early 2024, the bank notes in its “Taking Stock” report released Tuesday.

While exports are recovering, consumption and private domestic investment are growing more gradually, but still below pre-pandemic levels. Real exports are expected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting gradual improvement in global demand.

In addition, a turnaround in the real estate sector is anticipated later this year and next, bolstering domestic demand as investors and consumers regain confidence, according to the report. Real total investment and private consumption are projected to increase by 5.5% and 5% in 2024, respectively.

Apartment blocs in Hoang Mai district, Hanoi. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.

Apartment blocs in Hoang Mai district, Hanoi. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.

The bank retains its growth forecast for Vietnam at 5.5% in 2024 and 6.0% by 2025.

Dorsati Madani, senior economist, WB in Hanoi, notes that risks to the outlook are balanced. Downside risks include slower-than-expected global growth (especially the U.S., the Eurozone and China); pace of domestic real estate markets recovery; and further deterioration of financial sector’s asset quality resulting from weak performance of the economy (real estate sector and consumer credit).

On the other side, upside opportunities include stronger-than-expected recovery in main trade partners; lower global interest rates; and reforms in the real estate sector and the new Land Law that will facilitate recovery of the sector.

The report underscores the importance of sustained fiscal policy support to reinforce the recovery. It recommends expediting infrastructure investment projects financed by public resources.

“This would help further stimulate the economy, with an additional potential 0.1 percentage point of GDP growth for every 1 percentage point increase in public investment as a share of GDP,” it says.

In the meantime, on monetary policy, the space for additional interest rate cuts is limited due to the interest rate differential between domestic and international markets.

Continued weak revenue collection and increased spending, including the planned salary increases for civil servants and accelerated investment public investment, are expected to widen the fiscal deficit to 1.6% of GDP in 2024, before narrowing to 1.1% in 2025, in line with the country’s Fiscal Strategy for 2021-2030, the bank adds.

It warns that capital buffers of commercial banks are relatively thin, and the real estate market’s downturn could further depress the capital.

The WB recommends Vietnam ensure the stability of the financial sector, with a focus on managing potential risks associated with increasing bad debts, including due to declining asset values in the real estate market.

“Investing in public infrastructure projects goes beyond immediate economic stimulus,” says World Bank East Asia and Pacific practice manager for Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Sebastian Eckardt.

“Efforts to enhance public investment management will also address critical infrastructure gaps in energy, transportation, and logistics, which are fundamental for Vietnam's long-term economic growth,” Eckardt adds.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Vietnam signs deals to import nearly $3 bln worth of US agricultural products

Vietnam signs deals to import nearly $3 bln worth of US agricultural products

Vietnamese businesses accompanying Minister of Agriculture and Environment Do Duc Duy on a six-day visit to the U.S. signed multiple agreements to import nearly $3 billion worth of American agricultural products, expanding bilateral cooperation in the agricultural sector.

Economy - Sun, June 8, 2025 | 10:33 am GMT+7

EPC contract signed for O Mon IV thermal power project in southern Vietnam

EPC contract signed for O Mon IV thermal power project in southern Vietnam

An EPC contract signing ceremony for the O Mon IV thermal power project in Can Tho city took place on Friday, at the headquarters of state-owned Petrovietnam - the investor.

Energy - Sun, June 8, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai ventures into mulberry cultivation, coffee production

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai ventures into mulberry cultivation, coffee production

After overcoming two major obstacles - debt and accumulated losses - Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC (HoSE: HAG) is charting a bold five-year strategic roadmap, introducing two new business segments: mulberry cultivation and coffee-tea production.

Companies - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 4:35 pm GMT+7

Stock trading accounts hit 10 mln in Vietnam

Stock trading accounts hit 10 mln in Vietnam

Vietnam recorded a large increase in the number of stock trading accounts in April and May, when the U.S. tariff turbulence caused strong market fluctuations.

Finance - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 3:38 pm GMT+7

Thailand’s SCG books $301 mln in Q1 sales from Vietnam

Thailand’s SCG books $301 mln in Q1 sales from Vietnam

Siam Cement Group (SCG) reported sales of VND7.77 trillion ($301 million) in Vietnam in Q1/2025, reflecting the country as a key market for the Thai conglomerate in Southeast Asia.

Companies - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 9:54 am GMT+7

Vietnam’s energy firm identifies 3 emissions violations among Vietnamese enterprises

Vietnam’s energy firm identifies 3 emissions violations among Vietnamese enterprises

Looking ahead, 2030 is a milestone year, as major global brands such as Unilever, Nestlé, H&M, and Nike have committed to cutting Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 50-65%, said Pham Dang An, CEO of Vu Phong Energy Group, a major developer of clean energy in Vietnam.

Companies - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Deal acquiring financial firm of Vietnam's SeABank invalid: Aeon Financial

Deal acquiring financial firm of Vietnam's SeABank invalid: Aeon Financial

Aeon Financial Service Co., Ltd. on Friday stated that its deal to purchase a financial company owned by Vietnam's SeABank is invalid due to "inappropriate accounting transactions."

Finance - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:57 pm GMT+7

VSAP LAB to build $69 mln chip packaging tech laboratory in central Vietnam

VSAP LAB to build $69 mln chip packaging tech laboratory in central Vietnam

Vietnamese private firm VSAP LAB JSC has been approved as the investor of a VND1.8 trillion ($69.11 million) advanced packaging technology laboratory project that will assist semiconductor production in the central city of Danang.

Industries - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 8:11 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's major property developer Hoang Huy successfully raises $30.7 mln from parent company

Vietnam's major property developer Hoang Huy successfully raises $30.7 mln from parent company

Hoang Huy Investment Services JSC (HoSE: HHS) has successfully issued 64 million shares for VND800 billion ($30.7 million) via private placement to its parent company – Hoang Huy Financial Services Investment JSC (TCH).

Companies - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 3:32 pm GMT+7

Subsidiaries, affiliates likely not to enjoy preferential corporate income tax in Vietnam

Subsidiaries, affiliates likely not to enjoy preferential corporate income tax in Vietnam

Subsidiaries and affiliates of enterprises in Vietnam might not be eligible for preferential corporate income tax (CIT) rates of 15-17%, in order to prevent abuse of incentives like splitting income for tax avoidance, according to the Financial and Economic Committee under the National Assembly, the country's legislature.

Finance - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 3:22 pm GMT+7

VPS Securities JSC named Vietnam’s best broker again by The Asset

VPS Securities JSC named Vietnam’s best broker again by The Asset

VPS Securities JSC (VPS) has once again been honored as the “Best Brokerage House in Vietnam” at the Triple A Awards 2025, presented by The Asset, a leading Asia-focused financial publication.

Companies - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:40 am GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major BAF eyes two 6-story buildings for pig farming in southern Vietnam

Vietnam's agri major BAF eyes two 6-story buildings for pig farming in southern Vietnam

BAF Vietnam Agriculture JSC has submitted a proposal to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to develop a smart pig farming complex including two six-story buildings in the southern provinces of Tay Ninh and Binh Phuoc.

Industries - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:20 am GMT+7

Food major Kido leaders reveal real estate ambitions

Food major Kido leaders reveal real estate ambitions

Leaders of Kido Group, a leading Vietnamese food and cooking oil producer, said they see many positive policies that are helping to ease real estate market difficulties and create favorable conditions for the company to develop projects on its land reserves.

Real Estate - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:03 am GMT+7

Indonesia accelerates procedures to join OECD

Indonesia accelerates procedures to join OECD

The Indonesian Government has finalised the preparation of the Initial Memorandum (IM) for its accession to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which will be submitted to OECD Secretary-General Matthias Cormann in Paris, France.

Southeast Asia - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 10:16 am GMT+7

OECD lowers Indonesia's growth forecast to 4.7%

OECD lowers Indonesia's growth forecast to 4.7%

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth down to 4.7% this year, from the previous 4.9%, due to weakened domestic sentiment and heightened external risks.

Southeast Asia - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 10:15 am GMT+7

Vietnam, US sign additional agricultural trade deals worth over $600 mln

Vietnam, US sign additional agricultural trade deals worth over $600 mln

Vietnam and the U.S. on Wednesday signed MoUs on importing animal feed materials from Ohio state with total value exceeding $600 million.

Economy - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 10:03 am GMT+7