Vietnam has been removed from the Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) group and added to the Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (EMMIEs) group by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In the April 2024 edition of its World Economic Outlook report, released on Tuesday, the IMF did not provide an explanation for the change.
The IMF said the global economy will continue to grow at 3.2% during 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023.
A slight acceleration for advanced economies, where growth is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.2% in both 2024 and 2025, it added.
The forecast for global growth five years from now, at 3.1%, is at its lowest in decades, the IMF emphasized. "The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability.".
The IMF projected Vietnam's GDP will grow 5.8% in 2024, 6.5% in 2025, and 6.5% in 2029.
Among the EMMIEs in Asia, Vietnam’s figure for 2024 is among the highest, only lower than the 6% for Cambodia, 6.8% for India, 6.5% for Mongolia, 12.4% for Palau, and 6.2% for the Philippines.
For 2025, Vietnam’s anticipated economic growth of 6.5% topped the group, only behind or on par with Bhutan at 6.6%, India at 6.5%, and Palau at 11.9%.
The IMF projected Vietnam’s inflation at 3.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025.
Vietnam’s economy is expected to expand 5.8% in 2024 from 5.05% last year, driven by exports and domestic consumption, said Maybank Securities Limited (MSVN).
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has retained Vietnam's economic growth forecast this year at 6%, above developing Asia's average of 4.9% and developing Asia (excluding China)'s average of 5%.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 6% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. The country’s 6% figure for 2024 is the third highest in the region, only behind the Philippines with 6.3% and Cambodia with 6.2%.