UN maintains Vietnam’s economic growth anticipation at 6% in 2024, 6.5% in 2025

In its “World economic situation and prospects as of mid-2024,” the United Nations (UN) retained its projection of Vietnam’s economic growth at 6% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

The figures are unchanged from the January forecast. Vietnam’s figure is above the global average of 2.7% in 2024, already an improvement from 2.4% mentioned in the January edition of the report.

Vietnam’s 6% figure in 2024 is the highest one in Southeast Asia, on par with Cambodia at 6%. The figures of other regional peers are the Philippines with 5.8%, Indonesia 5%, Malaysia 4.5%, Laos 4%, Brunei 2.8%, Thailand 2.6%, Singapore 2.4%, and Myanmar 1%.

The latest change is based “on the back of better-than-expected performance of the United States economy and some improvement in the outlook for several large emerging economies.”

However, the modest gain in the growth momentum is partly offset by the downward revisions of the growth outlook for the European Union, Africa, and Western Asia, the UN said.

The global near-term economic outlook is only cautiously optimistic as economic vulnerabilities remain, amid persistently high interest rates, continuing geopolitical tensions, and increasing climate risks, the UN affirmed.

Besides, the UN revised up Vietnam’s inflation to 3.6% in 2024 and 3% in 2025, versus 3.3% and 2.7% in the January edition, respectively.

Vietnam’s economy expanded 5.66% in the first quarter, the highest figure for that period since 2020, according to government data. In April, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the government's principal economic advisory body, proposed targeting GDP growth of 6.5% this year, the mandatory upper limit.

In April, the World Bank said it retained the growth forecast for Vietnam at 5.5% in 2024 and 6.0% by 2025. Also in April, the IMF projected Vietnam's GDP will grow 5.8% in 2024, 6.5% in 2025, and 6.5% in 2029. Standard Chartered Bank lowered Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 6% from 6.7%