Vietnam likely to grow 5.5-6% this year: think tank

Vietnam’s economy is likely to expand 5.5-6% this year, 0.5 percentage points lower than the government’s target, researchers with the Hanoi-based Vietnam Institute for Economics and Policy Research (VEPR) estimate.

The projection matches forecasts of 5.5-6% by international institutions including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

Manufacturing and exports, which showed slight improvement in the first four months, will remain growth drivers this year, although it is not certain that they will sustain their improvement, VEPR said in a report released Friday.

Key components of aggregate demand like private investment and consumption have tended to ease both in terms of growth pace and contribution to GDP growth. Meanwhile, the spill-over impact on real economy from public demand needs time to take effect, the report says.

It points out several challenges facing Vietnam’s economy in 2024: negative impacts of the U.S. Fed’s delay in cutting rates on the country's exports and inbound foreign investment; prolonged geopolitical conflicts; and difficulties faced by businesses in Vietnam in terms of markets, workforce, technology, and capital.

Other likely headwinds include climate change and natural disasters; and persistent upward inflationary pressure globally as Vietnam relaxes its monetary policy.

Although actual foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $6.28 billion in January-April, up 7.4% year-on-year, marking the fastest rate in five years, the report recommends that the government continue to improve Vietnam’s investment climate, raise economic competitiveness and effectively deal with potential downside risks.

Risks to Vietnam’s FDI inflows include sluggish global economic recovery; extended Russia-Ukraine conflict; impacts of the Global Minimum Tax; and competition from neighboring nations, the report says.