Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves could increase to $102 billion by the end of 2023 from $90 billion in 2022, equivalent to 3.3 months of imports, said top broker VNDirect Securities.
In its latest macroeconomic report, VNDirect said last year the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) faced many difficulties in balancing its three main goals of controlling inflation, stabilizing exchange rates, and managing interest rates to support economic growth.
In the first 10 months of last year, the SBV had to sell over 20% of its total foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. As a result, Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves fell to below three months of imports, the level recommended level by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
VNDirect attributed the 2023 growth in foreign reserves to the country’s anticipated trade surplus of $13.4 billion, higher than the $12.4 billion recorded last year; and the current account surplus increasing to 1.4% of GDP from an expected deficit of 0.8% in 2022.
The main risks to VNDirect’s projection include higher-than-expected inflation, beyond-expectation appreciation of the U.S. dollar pressuring the local currency, and economic recession of major trading partners hitting Vietnam’s exports.
Additionally, the brokerage house said improvement in foreign reserves in combination with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance, possibly in mid-2023, would mark an end to the sharp depreciation of the Vietnam dong against the greenback.
The possible cooling of the U.S. dollar is positive news for Vietnam as it eases pressure on the exchange rate, VNDirect added. It clarified amid lower pressure on the exchange rate, the SBV would have room to shift its priorities to stabilize interest rates to support businesses and the economy.
Besides, the increasing probability of a global tightening liquidity backstop would provide headroom for the SBV to keep policy rates unchanged. Deposit rates will remain flat in the first half of this year and then gradually cool from the third quarter.
On the same note, Standard Chartered anticipated that raising foreign reserves will be a key priority for the SBV this year. The exchange rate could reach VND23,400 and VND23,000 per $1 by end-2023 and end-2024, respectively, thanks to growth in the current account and the recovery of the tourism sector.
VNDirect projects Vietnam's GDP growth in 2023 at 6.2%, versus the previous forecast of 6.7%, due to the stronger-than-expected impacts of the global economic slowdown. Other challenges include high interest rates, global inflation, tight liquidity, and rising debts from the residential property sector.
On January 10, the World Bank forecast Vietnam may grow 6.3% this year, while Standard Chartered and HSBC predicted 7.2% and 5.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Singapore's United Overseas Bank forecast 6.62%.
With last year’s 8.02% GDP growth, the highest in 12 years, Vietnam was one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. However, the high growth rate in 2022 is partly derived from the low growth base in the two pandemic years 2020-2021, at 2.91% and 2.58% respectively.