Massive imports unnecessary to narrow Vietnam-international gold price gap: researchers

There’s no need for Vietnam to import large quantities of gold to reduce domestic-global price disparity since it does not truly reflect supply-demand imbalances, a think tank has said.

Prices of SJC-brand gold biscuits in Vietnam have been rising to new highs repeatedly since last year, hitting VND85 million ($3,340) a tael last month and an all-time high of VND92.4 million last Friday.

The surge in domestic prices has widened the disparity to VND20 million ($786) a tael.

Between January and April, the yellow metal gained 20.75% value in Vietnam, according to a report released Friday by Hanoi-based Vietnam Institute for Economics and Policy Research (VEPR).

Significant gold imports “will not only miss the target but also cause unnecessary waste of resources,” the report said.

It noted that the nation’s central bank, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), has sold a combined 27,200 taels of SJC-brand gold bars in seven auctions, just 23% of the quantity put up for auction. Three of the seven auctions attracted no bids.

In this context, administrative measures acquired special importance in ensuring transparency and fighting price manipulation, the report said.

Gold market inspections, insisting on the use of receipt, and investigating price manipulation are among important measures that could deliver immediate effects without requiring the SBV to tap its forex reserves, it added.

It noted that the history of Vietnam’s gold market has revealed periods when domestic and global prices moved in parallel and the gap was insignificant; and there have been several occasions where Vietnam’s prices were cheaper than global peer prices.

The researchers have concluded that low interest rates from 2021 to early 2022 period and the final months of 2023 created ideal conditions for the rally of any asset. For example, in 2016-2019 and mid-2023, the spread was almost zero or insignificant when banks rushed to lift interest rates to stabilize the USD/VND exchange rate.

Meanwhile, in 2014-2015, the spread widened to 10-20% after the central bank sold some 74 tons of gold in 2013. In early 2024, several factors including geopolitical turmoil and real estate and stocks becoming less attractive investment channels than 2021-2022 created more favorable conditions for gold price to surge. A herd sentiment has further fueled the gold rally.

Therefore, the Vietnamese government should refrain from importing gold or relinquishing its monopoly on the production of SJC-branded gold bars. Instead, it should use the interest rate tool effectively to prevent any asset bubble, including that of gold, the report recommended.