The Vietnamese real estate market may recover from the second to the fourth quarter of 2024, prospering from Q4/2024 to Q1/2025 and then stabilizing from the first quarter of 2026, according to experts.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the realty market has shown glimmers of hope, with sales campaigns launched for large-scale projects stretching from the North to the South, thus creating supply and promoting the recovery process.
In the North, new apartments have been released at The Canopy Residences project in Vinhomes Smart City urban area with about 1,800 units, and The Moonlight 1 An Lac and Rose Town Ngoc Hoi projects, all in Hanoi. The low-rise and terraced housing segment welcomed the Aquarius project in Hung Yen province, Sapa City Clouds in Lao Cai province, and Danko Center urban area in Tuyen Quang province.
In the southern region, new supplies came from the next phases of Akari City, Glory Heights, Mastery Center Point, The Global City and The Privia in Ho Chi Minh City; Eco Village Saigon River and Fiato City in Dong Nai province; Bcons Polaris and Astral City in Binh Duong province; and Waterpoint in Long An province.
In the central region, information about new projects being offered for sale has also "warmed" up the market. They include Eco Central Park in Vinh town, Nghe An province; The Panorama 2 in Da Nang city; and The Sailing in Quy Nhon town, Binh Dinh province.
In particular, after a long period of absence from the market, the resort real estate segment has made a comeback, with large-scale projects such as The 5Way Phu Quoc, Meypearl Harmony Phu Quoc, Regal Legend Quang Binh and The Ocean Resort Quy Nhon.
The Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) said that across the country, new projects for sale have drawn buyers' interest and secured impressive deposits and reservations with attractive sales policies. In particular, The 5Way Phu Quoc recorded many times more deposits than the number of units up for sale.
Nguyen Quoc Anh, deputy general director of leading property listing website Batdongsan.com.vn, commented that the Vietnamese real estate market this year has seen positive developments, similar to the reversal point of the previous cycle.
He cited in terms of interest rates, since the year beginning, the State Bank of Vietnam has adjusted down the ceiling deposit interest rate four times and lowered the policy interest rates four times. Commercial banks in Vietnam are unanimously lowering their interest rates on short-term deposits to all-time lows as credit demand stays lackluster despite the year-end peak season nearing.
In addition, the adoption of the amended Laws on Real Estate Business and Housing, the government's establishment of five working groups to remove difficulties for public investment projects, a 2% interest rate support package, and a VND120 trillion ($493 billion) support package for social housing have aided the real estate market, Anh added.
“The market could reverse from the second to the fourth quarter of 2024, and then enter a new cycle,” he said, adding the initial phase of the new cycle is expected to take place in the second half of 2024 with small liquidity coming from apartment products that meet real needs.
The market consolidation phase will fall from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, given that monetary tools and policies have been stepped up on a large scale, helping remove difficulties in cash flow. In addition, the revised Laws on Real Estate Business and Housing, effective from the beginning of 2025, will contribute to unleashing cash flow and resolving legal issues to create motivation for sustainable market development.
"The real estate market will enter a period of prosperity from the second to fourth quarter of 2025. Hopefully, this period will record strong economic development and a growth of investments in the real estate sector. Developers’ financial potential and improved monetary environment will lead to a recovery in supply and liquidity on a large scale, pushing up real estate prices during this period," Anh predicted.
In the first quarter of 2026, the real estate market may gradually enter a period of stability during which it will see good growth in terms of liquidity and price, and the appearance of many types of real estate, he stated.
Previously, in a report on the property market in the third quarter of 2023, Anh commented that the market is likely to recover around the second and fourth quarters of 2023. Many other experts also shared the same opinion. However, the facts show that the market has not seen many changes with buyers merely “looking at” projects rather than "putting money down". As a result, real estate businesses still face extreme difficulties with low purchasing power and liquidity.