Northern Vietnam forecast to face power shortages during dry season

Vietnam's northern region is facing a power shortfall of 1,600-4,900 megawatts in May and June as temperatures soar, according to state utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN).

The northern and central regions have just entered the hot season, and power consumption has sharply increased. EVN data shows that average power consumption from April 16-21 reached 823 million kWh per day, up nearly 5% compared to a supply plan approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

EVN said that from April 17, the National Load Dispatch Center has been mobilizing electricity from diesel-fueled turbines, including 2,498 MW on April 21.

It forecast electricity consumption will rise 15% year-on-year in the summer months from May-July.

Since the dry season began in April, the country's average daily electricity consumption has hit 745 million kWh, with the northern region accounting for nearly half. Demand in the North in the hot season is higher than in the central and southern regions.

For example, on May 6, the load level in the North was 20,051 MW, 1,720 MW higher than the South and five times higher than the central region (3,871 megawatts), according to the National Load Dispatch Center.

A lack of new power projects in the North has not helped matters, while additional power sources in the central and southern regions, mainly renewable energy, can only partially support the North as transmission capacity through 500kV lines is technically limited.

In addition, hydroelectricity and coal- and gas-fueled thermo power production and imports are all facing difficulties.

This year's hydrological developments are not as favorable as 2022, with water levels in reservoirs equal to only 70-90% of the average in recent years. The El Nino phenomenon is forecast to cause higher temperatures and lower rainfall, causing reservoirs to dry up.

EVN estimates the remaining production from the system's reservoirs at 4.5 billion kWh, 4.1 billion kWh lower than the same period last year.

Regarding coal supply for power generation, EVN’s power plants now lack 1.3 million tons of coal to operate. Coal purchases are facing difficulties due to market restrictions and poor infrastructure.

Similarly, gas supplies have also dropped compared to previous years, with an expected output of 5.6 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 1.3 billion cubic meters from 2022.

Meanwhile, wind power remains limited because generation from May-July may be lower than in 2022, and is likely to fall at the end of the dry season, especially in the evening when demand peaks.

Electricity imports from China are projected to reach only 1.1 billion kWh, equal to 68% of the plan.

EVN reported a total loss of more than VND26.2 trillion (almost $1.12 billion) last year due to soaring generation costs that rose 9.27% last year from a year earlier to VND2,032 ($0.09) per kWh.

The state-run utility on Thursday raised the country’s average retail electricity price by 3%, the first hike since March 2019. The new average price is VND1,920 ($0.08) per kilowatt hour, excluding VAT.