Oil prices surge amid geopolitical tensions: Take profits or hold energy positions?

In the short term, investors may consider timing the strong rally in oil prices to take profits in Vietnam’s oil and gas stocks, while using potential pullbacks in other sectors to accumulate shares, said experts.

Geopolitical tensions among the U.S., Israel, and Iran are causing unpredictable volatility in global financial markets. Forecasts of a sharp rise in global oil prices have become a focal point, raising investor expectations for Vietnamese oil and gas stocks.

During early Asian trading, Brent crude was reportedly quoted at $78.21 per barrel, up 7.45% from its Friday close of $72.87. WTI crude rose 7.27% to $71.89 per barrel. Analysts forecast oil prices could climb to $90-100 per barrel if the conflict persists.

Economists from Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Barclays warned that if the conflict broadens, oil prices could easily surpass the $100 per barrel threshold. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy suggested oil prices could jump to $92 per barrel as soon as the official trading session opens.

According to the Hanoi-based MB Securities (MBS), the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, particularly the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger significant ripple effects across the global and Vietnamese oil and energy sectors. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz makes it a decisive market variable, as approximately 14-21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, accounting for around 30% of global seaborne oil shipments.

Any disruption at this “chokepoint” would send widespread energy price shocks, affect supply chains, and increase marine insurance costs. Asian markets would likely bear the brunt of the impact, as three-quarters of the oil passing through the strait is shipped to major consuming countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Crude oil prices are forecast to rise immediately by $5-7 per barrel once markets open. If retaliatory actions targeting commercial shipping routes persist, Brent crude could surpass $100 per barrel, similar to the 40% price spike seen during the 2022 Ukraine war. This escalation may go beyond price volatility, potentially leading to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and triggering an economic downturn, the broker noted.

For Vietnam’s economy, MBS said, a sharp rise in global oil prices would directly and swiftly impact domestic transportation and logistics costs. Rising input production costs would put upward pressure on the consumer price index (CPI) and affect supplies of imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG), directly impacting industrial activities reliant on these energy sources.

Oil & gas stocks soar

On the Monday trading session, Vietnam’s oil and gas stocks surged sharply, with GAS of PV Gas, BSR of Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical JSC, PVD of PV Drilling, OIL of PV Oil, PLX of Petrolimex, PVS of Petrovietnam Technical Services Corporation, and PVT of Petrovietnam Transportation Corporation all hitting their ceiling prices.

Across various Vietnamese stock investment forums, many investors have expressed optimism that rising oil price forecasts will positively impact oil and gas stocks.

However, Tran Tuan Minh, CEO of TVI Financial Investment JSC, predicted that geopolitical tensions will push up prices of oil, fertilizers, and gas, as 20-30% of global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, he noted that the actual benefits for domestic oil and gas enterprises from rising oil prices may be limited.

GAS primarily engages in gas transportation and distribution; PVS focuses on oil and gas project construction; while PVD provides drilling rig leasing services. Downstream companies such as BSR and PLX may benefit to some extent, but the impact is not significant, he analyzed.

The CEO advised investors to remain cautious amid sharp stock price increases. A prudent strategy would be to continue holding existing portfolios or closely monitor the market, avoiding chasing stocks at high price levels due to elevated risks.

Stock market may face short-term pressure

Statistics from Yuanta Securities Vietnam showed that wars and armed conflicts often negatively impact stock markets in the short term, before the effects gradually fade over time.

On average, a market takes about 22 trading sessions to form a bottom and around 47 sessions to recover to pre-event levels. Compared to other regions, tensions in the Middle East tend to have a relatively milder negative impact.

Data indicated that Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index, tracking the performance of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), may decrease by an average of about 3.5% during conflicts. Over 30-day and 90-day periods, the average declines are approximately 6% and 3%, respectively. However, the long-term trend remains positive, with the index potentially rising about 10% after one year.

Conversely, oil prices typically surge in the early stages of geopolitical crises, while major stock indices such as the S&P 500 face correction pressure. After roughly 22 days, international markets tend to bottom out and recover, leading oil prices to gradually cool down.

Based on these statistics, Yuanta Securities recommended that investors take advantage of sharp oil price increases to realize short-term profits in oil and gas stocks. At the same time, corrections in other sectors may present opportunities for portfolio restructuring.

In the short term, experts suggested investors consider timing the strong rally in oil prices to take profits in Vietnam’s oil and gas stocks, while using potential pullbacks in other sectors to accumulate shares.