Optimism rises for Thailand’s economy after US tariff cut

Thailand’s private sector has lifted its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8-2.2%, up from the previous 1.5-2%, following the U.S. decision to reduce import tariffs on Thai goods from 36% to 19%.

During the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) meeting on August 6, officials identified the U.S. tariff reduction as a significant driver behind the improved economic outlook.

Exports are now anticipated to grow by 2-3%, compared to the previous forecast of -0.5% to 0.3%.

JSCCIB Chairman Payong Srivanich emphasized that the reduced reciprocal tariff helps Thailand maintain competitiveness, preventing it from being disadvantaged compared to neighboring countries facing similar duty levels.

However, he warned that economic momentum may slow in the latter half of the year due to persistent export challenges. These include intensified price competition, declining tourism revenue, and weaker external demand abroad.

In addition, Payong noted that Thailand could face greater challenges from the final quarter of this year through early 2026. Given this outlook, the country needs to pursue business and economic reforms to better prepare for long-term uncertainties.