Searching for a 'pillar' to support VN-Index

Banking stocks will serve as the main pillar supporting VN-Index as they are the least affected by global geopolitical tensions and are responsible for injecting more than VND2,700 trillion (102,69 billion) into the economy in 2026, said Ho Sy Hoa, director of research and investment advisory at DNSE Securities.

The latest movements of VN-Index, which tracks the performance of Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), appear to be significantly influenced by the conflict in the Middle East. Over the past two months, real estate stocks have faced strong selling pressure, while oil and gas stocks have risen positively. How do you evaluate this phenomenon? Is this a sustainable shift of capital into defensive stocks, or merely a short-term psychological reaction to global oil price movements?

The real estate sector is facing pressure from two main factors. First is the rising trend in interest rates. When interest rates increase, capital costs for both businesses and investors rise, while speculative demand in the real estate market declines. As a result, the sector faces stronger downward pressure on prices.

Second, current real estate prices are already at relatively high levels. Combined with the upward trend in interest rates, this has led to quite clear signs of sell-offs within the sector.

As for the oil and gas sector, oil and gas stocks generally have a high correlation with oil prices. However, the correlation between the profit growth rate of companies in this sector and their stock prices usually has a lag of one to two years, particularly over the past year.

When catalysts such as geopolitical risks or wars emerge and push oil prices higher, they tend to trigger short-term trading activities, leading to recent increases in oil and gas stock prices.

With gains of more than 70% since the beginning of the year, many oil and gas stocks are no longer cheap. In your opinion, what is the biggest risk for investors entering at current price levels, especially if tensions in the Middle East ease faster than expected?

As we have seen, the market has experienced strong divergence since the second half of 2025, with capital concentrating in large-cap stocks or stocks with specific narratives. When these groups enter a correction phase, even a small amount of new information can quickly cause investors and capital flows to shift elsewhere. Recently, we have also seen some corrections in oil and gas stocks.

Oil prices have been extremely volatile, ranging from above $100 per barrel to around $86 recently. This shows that global oil price movements remain highly complex and directly affect stock prices in this sector.

Therefore, buying oil and gas stocks at the current time depends largely on oil price movements and investors’ expectations of future oil prices. There is also a trading time lag, meaning investors must wait more than 2.5 days for stocks to be credited to their accounts. During that period, oil prices may experience unpredictable movements depending on global economic and political developments.

For this reason, when opening a new position in this sector, investors must clearly determine whether they are trading for short-term gains or investing for the long term.

If investors aim for short-term trading at the moment, finding a good entry point is no longer as easy as it was when oil and gas stocks first began to rise. In addition, excessively high oil prices (above $100 per barrel) could create significant pressure on energy security and also impact monetary policy. Higher oil prices increase inflationary pressures, thereby narrowing the room for monetary policy adjustments. This would not be positive for the stock market or the broader macroeconomic environment.

In March, FTSE Russell will conduct its review. There is a high possibility that Vietnam’s stock market will be upgraded later this year. However, amid current volatility, investors may adopt a more defensive stance. In your view, which sector could act as the stabilizing force for VN-Index?

To stabilize the market, pillar stocks play a key role. Looking more broadly, banking stocks are the group least affected by recent geopolitical developments. They also bear the responsibility of injecting more than VND2,700 trillion (102,69 billion) into the economy in 2026.

Therefore, I believe the banking sector could act as the market’s main pillar in the coming period. In addition, the chemicals sector is another group worth considering at the moment. According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the sector’s production growth in the first two months of the year exceeded 20% year-on-year.

As for oil and gas stocks, investors should carefully consider the risks, as this sector remains highly sensitive to international market fluctuations and short-term risks related to war developments.

In your view, what catalysts or scenarios could help VN-Index stabilize soon and regain the 1,900-point level, potentially moving toward new milestones?

In my opinion, for the index to return to the 1,900 level, several factors must converge. The most important factor is stability in the global economy as well as oil price movements. Oil prices and oil reserves directly affect energy security, and Vietnam is also facing the challenge of ensuring energy security in the coming years.

When energy security is ensured and oil prices return to a safer range, inflationary pressure will ease, thereby reinforcing macroeconomic stability. Under such conditions, investor confidence - both domestic and international - could strengthen, creating conditions for capital to return to the market, especially if progress continues regarding Vietnam’s market upgrade.