Standard Chartered raises Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 7.5%
Standard Chartered Bank has revised up its Vietnam GDP growth forecast for this year to 7.5% from the previous 6.7%, and to 7.2% for next year from 7%, following the country's robust Q3 growth of 13.7% year-on-year.
A corner of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s southern economic hub, by Saigon River. Photo courtesy of VnEconomy newspaper.
The global bank, in a report Wednesday, anticipates the country’s Q4 growth at 4%.
Lowering its Vietnam inflation forecast for this year to 3.3% from 4.2%, the bank expects an acceleration in Q4 to 5% from 3.3% in Q3. Inflation has been largely under control; price pressures may increase in the rest of 2022 and in 2023. In addition to supply-side factors, demand-side factors might kick in more strongly, the report notes.
“We maintain our average 2023 inflation forecast at 5.5%, expecting it to rise throughout next year, reaching around 6% late next year. We see inflation as a threat to Vietnam’s continued recovery,” Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank, says in the report.
Standard Chartered economists expect the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to continue tightening monetary policy and forecast a 50 basic-point hike in the refinancing rate each in Q4-2022 and Q1-2023, taking the rate to 6%, following a 100 basic-point hike to 5% effective on September 23.
Leelahaphan says, “We see a risk of SBV raising rates more than we expect if inflation accelerates and the Vietnamese dong weakening more than we forecast as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance. We expect SBV to stay vigilant against inflation and financial instability besides helping businesses recover from the Covid impact.”
According to the UK-based lender, the Vietnamese dong is likely to face several headwinds in the short term like the gaining U.S. dollar, higher commodity prices, and slowing external demand. The Vietnamese dong continues to significantly outperform its peers across Asia, despite recent depreciation.
Standard Chartered Bank expects the pace of VND depreciation to slow in the coming months. The USD-VND forex’s correlation with USD-CNY remains extremely strong. As such, a peak in USD-CNY will likely coincide with the peak in the USD-VND forex.
The bank forecasts USD-VND at 24,200 by the end of 2022, and at 24,000 for end-Q1/2023, then declining towards 23,400 by end-2023.
Late last month, the World Bank revised Vietnam’s 2022 GDP forecast from 5.8% in early June to 7.2% (like Standard Chartered’s Wednesday forecast), and predicted 6.7% for next year, the highest in Southeast Asia.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) on Wednesday put its Vietnam GDP growth prediction at 7% for this year on the back of strong external demand, a recovery in domestic demand, and strong foreign direct investment inflows.
- Read More
Vietnam mulls opening door for private investment in small modular reactors
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has drafted a parliamentary resolution that, for the first time, would allow private companies to participate in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs).
Energy - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 4:37 pm GMT+7
Kido seeks buyer for remaining 49% stake in frozen food affiliate
Kido Group (HoSE: KDC), a leading food company in Vietnam, has approved a plan to divest the firm's remaining 49% stake in its affiliate Kido Frozen Food JSC (Kido Foods).
Companies - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 4:25 pm GMT+7
Le Ngoc Quang appointed Danang city's Party chief
Le Ngoc Quang, a Party Central Committee member and Party chief of Quang Tri province, has been appointed Party chief of Danang for the 2025-2030 term - the highest position in the city, central Vietnam's economic hub.
Politics - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7
T&T Group seeks to reshape north-central Vietnam’s urban landscape with major projects
Multi-sector conglomerate T&T Group is developing a model eco-urban complex in Ha Tinh province and plans to build a massive 236-hectare urban area in neighboring Nghe An, with an aim to reshape north-central Vietnam's urban landscape.
Investing - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 2:44 pm GMT+7
Toyota plans $359 mln plant expansion in northern Vietnam
Toyota Motor Vietnam (TMV) plans to invest about VND9.46 trillion ($359.2 million) in the first phase of its plant expansion project in Phu Tho province.
Investing - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 2:09 pm GMT+7
PVI Insurance sees 9-month profit before tax more than doubling
PVI Insurance has reaffirmed its position as the No. 1 non-life insurer in Vietnam, with total revenue increasing nearly 1.4 times in the first nine months of 2025 and pre-tax profit more than doubling year-on-year - surpassing its full-year targets for both revenue and profit.
Companies - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 9:08 am GMT+7
Vingroup to develop 4,600ha coastal urban project in northern Vietnam
A consortium of Vingroup (HoSE: VIC) and its real estate arm Vinhomes (HoSE: VHM) will develop a 4,600-hectare coastal urban complex in Ha An ward, Quang Ninh province, following local authorities’ approval of a zoning plan.
Real Estate - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 8:30 am GMT+7
Indonesia resumes int’l carbon trading after 4-year hiatus
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has issued a new decree to restart international carbon emissions trading after a four-year hiatus.
Southeast Asia - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 9:23 pm GMT+7
Investors seek 2-year delay for $2.56 bln LNG power project in northern Vietnam, citing equipment hurdles
Investors of a $2.56 billion LNG-fired power plant in Hung Yen province have proposed delaying the project’s commercial operation schedule by two years due to difficulties securing key equipment.
Energy - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 9:04 pm GMT+7
Vietnam to soon raise taxpayers' personal deduction: official
The personal income tax deduction in Vietnam is "very likely" to increase to VND21.7 million ($823,940) per month, including VND15.5 million (588,530) for the taxpayer and VND6.2 million ($235,410) for each dependent.
Finance - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 6:25 pm GMT+7
Business confidence climbs as reforms gain traction amid global headwinds: EuroCham Vietnam
The index climbed to 66.5, surpassing pre-tariffs level and reaching its highest in three years – showcasing resilience and adaptability amid global headwinds and evolving U.S. tariff pressures.
Economy - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 4:36 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's stock market watchdog suspends two Grant Thornton auditors
Vietnam's State Securities Commission (SSC) has suspended two auditors from Grant Thornton Vietnam after determining that the 2024 audited financial statements of Saigon Water Infrastructure Corporation (HoSE: SII) failed to meet required standards.
Finance - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 3:35 pm GMT+7
Law No. 56 a major policy breakthrough for Vietnam's stock market development
The Law No. 56, effective January 1, 2025, is one of the major legal breakthroughs in recent years that will enhance the transparency and operational efficiency of the Vietnamese stock market.
Finance - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 2:30 pm GMT+7
WHA Group breaks ground on smart technology industrial zone in central Vietnam
Thailand's WHA Group on Tuesday broke ground on a world-class, modern, and environmentally friendly industrial zone in central Vietnam, namely the WHA Smart Technology Industrial Zone-Thanh Hoa.
Real Estate - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 2:00 pm GMT+7
Vietnam a key partner in Murphy Oil’s global strategy: exec
Vietnam remains a key partner in Murphy Oil’s global business strategy, said Eric Hambly, the U.S. corporation's president and CEO.
Companies - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 12:06 pm GMT+7
VNPT, Qualcomm debut Vietnam’s 1st original design-based excellence center
State-owned Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group (VNPT) and Qualcomm have officially launched the VNPT-Qualcomm Excellence Center (VQEC), the first facility in the country to operate under an original design co-development model using Qualcomm’s core technologies.
Companies - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 8:41 am GMT+7






















