Steel industry still faces many risks: top broker SSI
Domestic steel demand is expected to continue falling due to the stagnant real estate market and tightened monetary policy, according to Vietnam's leading broker Saigon Securities.
Citing data from the Ministry of Construction, SSI Research said that the number of apartments licensed for construction in the first three quarters of 2022 plunged by 41% year-on-year. In addition, the implementation of backlogged projects may also be delayed as investors are facing liquidity problems.
The household channel, which showed a better recovery, could also be affected by a slowdown in the overall economy, with higher unemployment and interest rates.
SSI Research believed that the domestic demand for finished steel products may suffer a single-digit decline in 2023. However, the acceleration of public investment may help offset some of the reduced steel demand from households.

Hot rolled steel coil of Hoa Phat Group. Photo courtesy of the company.
According to the broker, steel exports have slumped due to the recession, but are likely to recover by the end of the year. The World Steel Association said that steel demand is expected to recover 1% year-on-year to 1.8 billion tons in 2023, after falling 2.3% in 2022.
Demand in both the U.S. and European markets is predicted to drop this year as a result of the economic downturn, while that in the ASEAN market is forecast to remain stable, after growing 4-6% in 2022.
Vietnam’s exports to long-standing trade partners may be affected by the capacity increases in recent years in neighboring countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
"We forecast finished steel exports may fall by more than 10% year-on-year this year. Company profits may recover from 2023 but risks remain high. Weak demand could lead to low efficiency, which will put pressure on their revenue, cash flow and profit margin this year,” SSI Research noted.
In addition, the narrowing price gap between Vietnam and other markets will make export profit margins less attractive than 2020-2021, it added.
This analysis group believed that the profit of the steel industry will continue to decrease in the first half of 2023 and gradually bounce back at the end of the year thanks to a possible demand recovery in both domestic and export markets.
The industry's 2023 forward P/E (price to earning ratio) valuation is in the range of 10-20x, well above the historical average of 8-10x and even higher than the level of 10-13x during the recession.
On the other hand, the P/B (price-to-book ratio) of key stocks such as HPG of Hoa Phat, HSG of Hoa Sen Group, and NKG of Nam Kim is currently in the range of 0.6-1x, 20% below the historical average, but still 20-30% higher than the low valuations in the previous bear markets of 2011 and March 2020.
"We do not expect steel companies' P/B to recover significantly in the short term, as the ROE (return on equity) is likely to stay around historic lows in 2023."
- Read More
Vietnam’s steel giant Hoa Sen spends $34 mln on land near Long Thanh airport for urban development
Hoa Sen Group (HoSE: HSG), Vietnam’s top producer of coated steel products, has spent VND900 billion ($34.3 million) acquiring land for a major urban development project in the southern province of Dong Nai.
Real Estate - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 8:22 am GMT+7
Halal market presents major opportunities for Vietnamese businesses
The global Halal market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2030, with Malaysia alone expected to hit $113.2 billion, said Shariza binti Abdul Rasheed, Halal product manager at Maybank Malaysia.
Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:18 pm GMT+7
Steel major Hoa Phat to pour extra $130 mln into central Vietnam plant
Vietnam’s leading steelmaker, Hoa Phat Group (HoSE: HPG), will increase investment in its Dung Quat 2 iron and steel production complex by VND3.4 trillion ($129.7 million) as part of an expansion plan.
Industries - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:03 pm GMT+7
Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects
Lung Lo Construction Corporation (LLC), under the Ministry of National Defense, has submitted investment proposals for 14 offshore wind power projects with a combined capacity of 9,000 MW.
Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 5:07 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure
Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC has been fined VND92.5 million ($3,528) for failing to disclose bond-related information as required by law.
Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:31 pm GMT+7
Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project
Quang Ninh province will hand over 4.9 hectares of reclaimed land to the Quang Ninh LNG-fuelled power plant project before August 11, local authorities stated at a meeting on Wednesday.
Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike
Vietnam’s seafood companies reported surging profits in Q2/2025, driven by importers ramping up purchases ahead of new U.S. reciprocal tariffs.
Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:21 pm GMT+7
Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC
Dragon Capital Group, Vietnam's largest asset manager, has appointed Le Anh Tuan as CEO of its arm Dragon Capital Vietfund Management Joint Stock Company (DCVFM), starting from October 1, 2025.
Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:01 pm GMT+7
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network
Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Bank of Thailand have added new Appointed Cross Currency Dealer (ACCD) participating banks to broaden services for bilateral transactions in local currencies across the three nations, Bank Indonesia said in a statement on Tuesday.
Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:48 pm GMT+7
ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation
ASEAN member states are set to sign an MoU on the implementation of the ASEAN Power Grid during the bloc’s Energy Ministers’ Meeting this October.
Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:43 pm GMT+7
Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter
Vietnam has outranked Thailand as the world’s second-largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025, Thai PBS reported on August 3, citing the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:41 pm GMT+7
Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months
Vietnam’s export earnings grew by 14.8% to $262.44 billion in the first seven months of this year, while its import turnover rose by 17.9% to $252.26 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $10.18 billion.
Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:19 pm GMT+7
Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US
Malaysia has agreed to buy and invest over $240 billion (MYR1.02 trillion) in the U.S. to help reduce the trade gap between the two countries.
Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:08 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt
Novaland, a major real estate developer in Vietnam, plans to issue nearly 152 million new shares to swap more than VND6 trillion ($228.8 million) worth of bond principal.
Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 10:11 am GMT+7
Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil
Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) capital in Vietnam reached $13.6 billion in Jan-July, up 8.4% year-on-year, despite U.S. tariff concerns.
Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:57 am GMT+7
Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential
Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Chang Lih Kang on Wednesday reaffirmed his ministry’s commitment to enhancing cooperation with the Ministry of Energy Transition and Water Transformation (PETRA) in exploring the potential of nuclear energy.
Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:10 am GMT+7
- Consulting
-
Navigating tariff shocks: Vietnam’s path forward through diversification
-
Southeast Asia IPO performance in Jan-June
-
Vietnam's fund management industry has chance to make breakthrough development: exec
-
Vietnam infrastructure spending surges 40%
-
Vietnam needs two-pronged policy approach to mitigate impact of rising oil prices: RMIT experts
-
Proactively managing risk in volatile times