Supply chain diversification opportunities help Vietnam attract FDI in 2024: broker

Opportunities for supply chain diversification, economic improvements and political stability are the aspects that would enable Vietnam to continue attracting FDI in 2024, according to Rong Viet Securities Company.

Global FDI will likely expand marginally in 2024, according to the Vietnamese broker (VDSC), which cited the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's prediction for global FDI capital flows.

VDSC analysts believe that the probability of drawing FDI capital to Vietnam in 2024 will remain strong due to three considerations.

First and foremost, Vietnam is a prospective country for firms' supply chain diversification strategies.

Second, Vietnam's economic development is likely to improve this year, and third, the political framework remains secure.

However, chances of negative developments remain due to geopolitical uncertainties, high debt levels in other countries, and the possibility of a drop in global economic growth, all of which might have an influence on FDI flows into Vietnam, the broker noted.

In a report released early this month, Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam (MAVN) predicted Vietnam will remain attractive to foreign investors even after it began applying the global minimum tax.

Some of the factors driving FDI attraction will include the elevation of Vietnam-US ties to that of a comprehensive strategic partnership; manufacturers looking for new markets to locate factories or adopting the China+1 strategy; and acceleration in infrastructure investment, the broker wrote.

"FDI inflows will also be catalyzed by supportive policies and the nation’s commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050; and competitive labor costs compared with other Asian countries," it added.

James Cheo, chief investment officer for Southeast Asia and India, Global Private Banking and Wealth, at HSBC, in a January report noted that the strong inflows of FDI will likely continue in 2024, buttressing Vietnam’s manufacturing sector. The strength of the national economy will come from a combination of consumer and investment spending.

Registered FDI in Vietnam reached $36.6 billion in 2023 through December 20, up 32.1% year-on-year, the highest ever growth, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

The total registered FDI included registered capital for new projects, additional capital for ongoing projects and capital contribution for stake acquisitions. The disbursement of FDI capital grew 3.5% year-on-year to $23.18 billion.

In terms of localities, HCMC led the pack of recipients with total registered capital of approximately $5.9 billion, up 48.5% year-on-year, of which the value of capital contributions and share purchases was $4.3 billion, accounting for over 73%.

The three fields that attracted the most FDI in HCMC were information and communication; transportation, and warehousing-real estate.

However, excluding capital contributions and share purchases, the six northern industrial provinces that attracted outstanding FDI in 2023 were Hai Phong (around $3.1 billion), Quang Ninh ($3.1 billion), Bac Giang ($3 billion), Thai Binh ($2.8 billion), Bac Ninh ($1.7 billion), and Nghe An ($1.6 billion).

The two investors that surpassed South Korea were Hong Kong and mainland China, rising to third and fourth place with total investments of $4.7 billion and $4.5 billion, respectively, in 2023. Investors from Hong Kong and mainland China focused on three groups, including solar cell manufacturing, electronic products and components, and vehicle support.