Thailand lowers growth forecast for 2025

The Thai Ministry of Finance has cut its forecast for the country’s economic growth this year to 2.1% from 3%, saying that the impact of U.S. tariffs and a global slowdown would weigh on Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office, told a recent press conference that exports, a key driver of Thai growth, are predicted to rise 2.3% this year, down from an earlier forecast of 4.4%.

The ministry lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals, another key driver of growth, to 36.5 million this year from a previous estimate of 38.5 million. The lower figure would still represent modest 2.7% growth from 2024.

Despite all the uncertainty about the U.S. trade policy, Thailand’s domestic consumption remains a bright spot, with private consumption projected to grow by 3.2%, thanks to rising purchasing power and a recovery in tourism, he said.

He held that as Thailand’s economic outlook hangs in the balance, the government needs to expedite the disbursement of the 2025 fiscal budget to support economic activity.

The official said if the U.S. eventually chooses to impose only a 10% tariff on Thai imports rather than the announced 36%, Thailand’s GDP growth could reach 2.5%.

The forecasts came a day after the Bank of Thailand cut interest rates at a second consecutive meeting and lowered its own forecasts for the economy this year.

The central bank expects the economy to grow by 2% in a best-case scenario, and 1.3% if the impact of U.S. tariffs is pronounced.