US tariffs the preeminent concern of AmCham members in Vietnam

The most pressing concern of AmCham Vietnam's members across all sectors was the potential impact of U.S. tariffs, according to a mid-year survey by the chamber.

More than one-third (36%) of companies said they were “extremely concerned,” and another 41% were “somewhat concerned,” AmCham Ho Chi Minh City stated in a press release on Wednesday.

Many reported that U.S. trade policies had already “somewhat” or “significantly” hurt their operations. Manufacturers and exporters were particularly vocal, with some warning that future investment or expansion could hinge on greater predictability in trade relations.

The third technical round of negotiations for a reciprocal trade agreement between Vietnam and the U.S. concluded in Washington, D.C. in mid June, with "significant progress made and gaps narrowed in all areas of negotiation," according to Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade.

On June 20, Permanent Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Hoa Binh stated that the government is making all efforts to prevent the proposed 46% U.S. tariff on Vietnamese exports from taking effect.

“Both sides have better understanding of each other and are working toward their agreed goals,” the official told a parliamentary session, adding that the “outlook is positive.”

Opportunities: Growth amid reform and rebalancing

According to the survey, despite the challenges, many firms see meaningful opportunity on the horizon. Companies highlighted Vietnam’s growing role in global supply chains - especially as part of a "China+1" strategy - as a major advantage.

Others pointed to the expansion of the digital economy, rising consumer demand, and infrastructure development as signs of a resilient domestic growth engine.

Professional services and logistics firms noted increasing demand for tech-enabled solutions, regulatory compliance services, and sustainable practices.

Meanwhile, manufacturers expressed optimism about new purchase orders shifting to Vietnam from other Asian markets - though many cautioned this momentum will depend on both local conditions and global policy stability.

Divergence performance across sectors

The survey findings show that business performance in the first half of 2025 saw significant divergence across sectors.

Nearly one in five companies (18%) reported outcomes that exceeded expectations, led by strong gains in logistics, select manufacturing segments, and large-scale food and beverage enterprises.

However, challenges persisted for others. 29% of businesses reported results that were slightly below expectations, while 12% experienced significant underperformance.

These shortfalls were most pronounced among smaller professional services firms, educational institutions, and segments of the real estate sector.

Staffing and revenue shifts

Headcount trends were largely steady. 61% of companies either increased (45%) or maintained (16%) the number of employees. Reductions were less common, with only 9% reporting a decrease.

This hiring activity signals that businesses are planning for longer-term growth, even if near-term revenue performance is mixed.

Revenue trends showed a split picture. Just over half of firms (52%) reported revenue gains compared to the same period last year, while 29% saw declines.

The manufacturing sector accounted for both ends of the spectrum - with some firms benefitting from rising exports and others struggling due to tariff concerns and supply chain volatility.

Cautiously optimistic about H2

Looking ahead, sentiment for the remainder of 2025 is cautiously optimistic. While 39% of respondents indicated a “slightly optimistic” outlook, and 32% remained neutral, fewer than 10% expressed “strong optimism” about near-term prospects.

This measured confidence points to a business environment that is hopeful but mindful of lingering economic headwinds.

Business Climate: Positive trajectory, lingering friction

When asked to rate the overall business climate in Vietnam, 37% of companies called it “somewhat positive,” while another 30% were “neutral.”

Respondents recognized recent progress in administrative reform, such as reduced paperwork burdens and digital government initiatives.

However, several cited inconsistent policy enforcement, regulatory ambiguity, and limited provincial coordination as ongoing obstacles.

"The 2025 mid-year snapshot reveals a business environment marked by resilience and recalibration. Firms are investing, hiring, and adapting - but they are also watching closely," AmCham HCMC said in the release.

"For Vietnam to fully realize its potential, clarity on tariffs, consistent policy implementation, and accelerated reform remain critical. As one respondent put it, “The opportunity is here - if the roadblocks don’t get in the way," it added.

With more than 550 corporate and 2,500 individual members, AmCham is one of the largest business associations in Vietnam.

The survey drew responses from a wide array of sectors - including manufacturing, professional services, logistics, real estate, energy, tourism, and F&B.

It provides a vital snapshot of business sentiment among AmCham HCMC member companies amid global uncertainty, shifting trade policies, and ongoing domestic reforms.