Petrolimex profit confusion rattles investors amid disclosure delay

Petrolimex, Vietnam's biggest gasoline retailer by market share, has come under scrutiny after delays and conflicting signals around its Q1/2026 earnings triggered sharp swings in its shares, highlighting risks for investors amid information gaps.

The group’s financial statements were signed on April 29 but were not disclosed until after the country's May 1 holiday, creating a window in which unverified information circulated widely in the market.

Amid rising fuel prices driven by tensions in the Middle East, fuel distributors were widely expected to benefit from previously accumulated low-cost inventories.

Peers such as Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical (HoSE: BSR), the operator of Vietnam’s first oil refinery Dung Quat, reported estimated Q1 net profit of nearly VND3.35 trillion ($127 million), more than eight times higher than a year earlier, while PV Oil (UPCoM: OIL) posted a 22-fold increase in profit to VND572 billion ($21.73 million).

Against this backdrop, Petrolimex (HoSE: PLX) had been seen by analysts as having strong prospects, particularly after setting a record-high 2026 pre-tax profit target of VND3.38 trillion ($128.4 million).

At its annual general meeting on April 24, CEO Luu Van Tuyen said the group’s core fuel trading segment was expected to post a loss of up to VND1 trillion ($37.99 million) in Q1. Following that statement, shares in Petrolimex fell to their daily limit on April 28, closing at VND36,950 ($1.4) with heavy trading volume of up to 6.5 million shares.

During the April 30-May 1 holiday, market rumors circulated that the group had instead posted a profit of around VND1 trillion ($37.99 million). On the first trading session after the holiday, May 4, the stock surged, at one point hitting its ceiling price before ending up 4.17% at VND38,700 ($1.47).

Petrolimex later issued a warning to investors, saying it had not yet officially released its Q1 financial results and that any information not sourced from its official disclosure channels, the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, or relevant authorities should not be considered reliable.

The company only released its financial statements late on May 4, despite the documents having been signed days earlier.

Market participants said the episode illustrates how investors can “pay the price” for delays and misinformation, as the stock moved sharply on preliminary comments and unverified rumours. Some investors who sold on loss expectations may have missed the rebound, while those buying on profit rumors faced uncertainty once official figures were released.

The delay also raised concerns over information asymmetry, as some parties may have accessed data earlier than others.

Inventory provisions weigh on earnings

According to the newly released financial statements, Petrolimex reported a 45.4% increase in Q1 revenue to VND98.7 trillion ($3.75 billion) in Q1. However, gross margin fell sharply to 3.7% from 5.47% a year earlier, leaving gross profit largely flat.

Financial income declined 14%, while financial expenses rose 32%. Selling and administrative costs also increased by 19% and 25% respectively.

As a result, the group posted a net loss of VND662 billion ($25.15 million), compared with a profit of VND210.7 billion ($8 million) in the same period last year.

In addition to volatile global oil prices, the company sharply increased provisions for inventory. As of the end of the quarter, inventories totalled VND36.27 trillion ($1.38 million), 2.6 times higher than at the start of the year.

Goods in transit rose from nearly VND1.48 trillion to over VND10.09 trillion ($383.43 million), while merchandise inventories increased from VND10.99 trillion to VND24.38 trillion ($926.07 million). The group set aside provisions of up to over VND6.51 trillion for inventory.

At the AGM, the CEO said the loss stemmed mainly from the core fuel business, estimating a loss of about VND1 trillion ($37.99 million). He noted that despite surging global oil prices - with diesel peaking at $292 per barrel in March, up 329% from February before falling to $140 in April - Petrolimex continued to import fuel to ensure domestic supply in line with government directives.

Historically, the group has also recorded losses during periods of extreme oil price volatility, including during the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine War, reflecting its role in maintaining energy security (loss of up to over VND1.89 trillion ($71.91 million) in Q1/2020 and VND196 billion in Q2/2022).

On its balance sheet, total assets rose by VND20.22 trillion ($768.04 million) to VND106.07 trillion, mainly due to higher inventories. The company also reported VND6.43 trillion ($244.3 million) in trading securities, up sharply from VND6.6 billion a year earlier, primarily in bonds and other investments, while held-to-maturity investments declined from over VND17.85 trillion ($678.28 million) to VND11.17 trillion.

Notably, Petrolimex did not increase borrowing to finance inventory accumulation. Short-term debt fell from nearly VND18.09 trillion ($687.09 million) to over VND10.35 trillion, while long-term debt edged up slightly, from VND609 billion to VND653 billion. Instead, accounts payable surged from VND23.98 trillion to VND58.7 trillion ($2.23 billion), indicating the company relied more heavily on supplier credit.