Vietnam retail sector leads earnings growth in Q4: broker

The total earnings across all sectors in Vietnam are expected to rise by 20% year-on-year in Q4/2024, with retail projected to lead the growth, forecasts local securities firm Agriseco.

Agriseco attributed the anticipated improvement in Q4 earnings to brighter import and export activity, increased orders, and growth in corporate assets and equities in Q3.

The retail sector is forecast to dominate earnings growth, with a projected increase of 150-180% compared to Q4/2023.

This surge is partly attributed to the low base in 2023, when intense price competition among electronics retailers suppressed earnings. Additionally, Q4 typically marks the peak shopping season, driven by heightened consumer demand during the holidays.

Following retail, the steel industry is expected to achieve a 50-60% earnings growth year-on-year. Steel sales are estimated to rise by 15-20%, supported by a 30-40% increase in domestic demand.

The logistics sector is also projected to record a 50-60% earnings growth, underpinned by an increase in total cargo volume passing through ports, elevated sea freight rates, and higher charter rates for container ships.

The sector is also benefiting from favorable trends in the seaport industry and the expanded capacity of logistics businesses.

The construction segment is likely to see a 30-40% rise in Q4 earnings, fueled by robust infrastructure demand, a recovery in the real estate market, and heightened construction activity.

The textile and garment sector is predicted to achieve a 20-30% earnings growth in Q4. This growth is supported by stable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, rising orders, and expanded capacity aligned with increasing global demand.