Vietnam stock market to enjoy favorable 'tailwinds' in H2: experts

While external challenges are persistent, domestic economic stimulus policies will be a key driver helping Vietnam's stock market become more positive in the remaining six months of 2025, according to experts.

In the first half of 2025, the country's stock market witnessed a notable recovery and breakout. Despite international headwinds such as U.S. tariff policies, which at one point drove the VN-Index, representing the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) down from 1,340 to as low as 1,073 points, the domestic market demonstrated strong resilience and rebounded quickly.

The VN-Index broke through the strong resistance zone of 1,350-1,355 points, setting a new three-year high and gradually heading toward higher milestones, with a target range of 1,380-1,400 points in Q3.

Speaking at the “Financial Street” talk show, Le Duc Khanh, director of analysis at VPS Securities, said this trend reflects significantly improved investor confidence, especially as market liquidity has remained high for a long period.

According to Khanh, one of the key highlights of H1 was the strong divergence among sectors, which, in turn, created new investment opportunities as many groups of stocks entered a new growth cycle.

Positively performing sectors included seaports, real estate, agriculture, and finance – industries benefiting from supportive macro policies, improved capital inflows, and optimism about economic recovery.

In addition, a strong return of domestic capital, particularly from retail and institutional investors, provided further momentum for the main index.

“Overall, the first half of 2025 saw not only a rise in market indexes but also improvements in investor sentiment and capital quality, signaling hopes for a more sustainable growth cycle in the second half,” he said.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Vo Dinh Tri from IPAG Business School in Paris, France noted that compared globally, the VN-Index has risen about 8% year-to-date, while U.S. stock markets have only gained around 3.5-3.7%.

Despite sharp corrections due to tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, various favorable factors have enabled Vietnam’s stock market to recover and gain ground, Tri added.

Strategy for second half

Khanh forecast that in H2, Vietnam’s economy is expected to continue its strong recovery, supported by both domestic and international factors.

Globally, former shocks that triggered volatility in financial and commodity markets such as conflicts in the Middle East and U.S.-China trade tensions, are gradually subsiding.

Additionally, the potential for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in Q4/2025 is a highly positive signal, which could ease pressure on exchange rates and domestic interest rates.

Domestically, 2025 is a key year for the implementation of the 2021-2025 medium-term public investment plan, with a total disbursement target of VND791 trillion ($30.28 billion). Major infrastructure projects such as the North-South Expressway, regional expressways, and new-generation energy programs are being actively promoted by the government, he said.

Concurrently, the 2-percentage-point VAT reduction policy, which is extended until the end of 2026, continues to play a vital role in boosting domestic consumption and lowering business operating costs.

Furthermore, the administrative reorganization of commune-level units effective from July 1, 2025, is expected to enhance government efficiency and accelerate local capital disbursement – a key factor for real economic growth, he added.

Given these factors, Khanh believed that Vietnam’s macroeconomic environment in H2 has a solid foundation to sustain recovery momentum and potentially set the stage for a new growth cycle in 2026.

Building on this positive macro outlook, he forecast that the stock market will maintain its upward trend, with room for further growth in the coming months. After surpassing the 1,350-point mark, the VN-Index is now targeting higher levels, specifically in the range of 1,400-1,450 points.

Supporting this trend are several factors, including the prospect of market status upgrade from “frontier” to “emerging”, improved economic growth, promising developments in U.S.-Vietnam trade negotiations, and expected monetary policy easing by major central banks globally.

From a sector perspective, key growth drivers are projected to include finance and securities, insurance, seaports and logistics, construction and building materials, chemicals, textiles, and retail. These industries benefit from both macro tailwinds and strong internal fundamentals.

According to Khanh, the financial sector remains a focal point, benefiting from the recovery of the capital market, strong capital inflows, and expectations of profit growth in the coming quarters. The seaport and logistics sectors are also worth noting, as the ongoing shift in global supply chains is increasing Vietnam's role on the global trade map.

Overall, the stock market in H2 appears to be enjoying favorable “tailwinds,” he said. However, he noted that industry- and stock-specific divergence is becoming more pronounced, requiring investors to adopt a selective strategy and effective risk management.

According to the VPS Securities expert, given the market’s favorable conditions, investment strategies for H2 should be built on flexibility and a blend of value and growth investing.

Long-term investors should prioritize accumulating stocks with strong fundamentals and undervalued prices relative to their long-term growth potential, particularly in sectors supported by macroeconomic policies, such as infrastructure, finance, technology, and consumer goods.

At the same time, Khanh recommended that investors should be prepared to rebalance their portfolios during strong market rallies to optimize asset allocation and manage risks.

In the short term, opportunities will emerge from stocks with good liquidity, price upswings driven by earnings results, favorable news, or returning cash flows. Sectors such as finance, securities, construction materials, chemicals, textiles, and stocks with positive business performance trends should be closely monitored.

Moreover, he noted investors must adhere to strict risk management principles and avoid chasing prices when the market heats up. The best approach is to deploy capital in tranches and closely monitor pullbacks to choose best entry points. In a diverging market, stock selection and trading discipline will be key to success in H2.

Sharing the same view, Tri noted that the market is expected to continue its recovery and upward trend. Liquidity and capital flows will favor certain sectors, such as construction materials and basic commodities. Additionally, capital may shift toward sectors that have underperformed recently, such as real estate and health care.

He said that from now until year-end, external market uncertainties will likely persist, as U.S. policy decisions remain difficult to predict. Individual investors should stay alert, manage their emotions, and avoid panic selling or chasing after rising prices.