Vietnam's 2024 coffee export hits record high on surging prices, topping $5 bln

Vietnam exported 1.32 million tons of coffee in 2024, earning nearly $5.48 billion in revenue which surpassed the $5 billion mark for the first time ever.

The export volume, however, was a decade low, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Vietnam’s raw coffee prices in the key coffee-growing regions of the Central Highlands rose steadily throughout the year.

At the start of the 2023-2024 crop year, the price was around VND60 million ($2,392) per ton. However, by January 2024, the price surged, reaching VND135 million ($5,382) - the highest level ever recorded for an agricultural commodity.

This price surge continued into the new crop year, which officially began in November and December 2024 for the 2025 business year.

Market participants initially expected a drop in prices due to the expected high output. But instead, prices briefly dipped to VND100 million ($3,987) per ton before quickly rebounding to VND130 million. By the end of 2024, prices remained high at about VND120 million ($4,784) per ton, marking the highest price ever during the harvest period.

In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee production for the 2023-2024 crop year to reach about 168 million bags (one bag = 60 kilograms). Of that, 96.4 million bags will be Arabica and 71.6 million bags will be Robusta.

For Robusta, Vietnam is expected to produce 26.5 million bags, while Brazil is close behind with 21.4 million bags. Other countries, such as India, Ivory Coast, Uganda, and even some that had previously disappeared from the world Robusta coffee map, like Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico, are increasing their Robusta cultivation areas due to favorable futures prices.

As more consuming countries start producing coffee, Vietnam’s export volume and market share have naturally declined. In 2024, Vietnam’s share of the global green coffee market was around 18%, with exports of 1.32 million tons out of the total of 7.19 million tons globally.

Meanwhile, Brazil has had a strong harvest, with a total coffee production of 3.98 million tons across all types. Notably, the country’s Robusta output steadily increased. In 2024 alone, Brazil’s Robusta production was estimated at 1.29 million tons, with 522,000 tons of Robusta beans exported - an impressive 107.4% increase over 2023.

Additionally, the price of export coffee, determined by the difference between the futures price and the delivery price from the port (FOB), soared throughout the year. At the start of the year, the price differential was aligned with the futures price, but by mid-year, premiums had increased to as much as $1,500 per ton.