Vietnam's 2025 crude steel output hits 5-year high

Vietnam’s crude steel output in 2025 reached a five-year high of 24.7 million tons, surpassing the previous peak recorded in 2020 and marking a 12% year-on-year increase, according to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA).

This figure underscores the strong internal capacity of Vietnam’s integrated steelmaking complexes, which are well positioned to supply materials for major infrastructure megaprojects over the coming decade, the association said.

It attributed the strong performance to robust GDP growth of 8.02% in 2025 - the highest level during the 2021-2025 period, as well as industrial production growth estimated at 9.73%, also the strongest since 2020.

Total steel sales in 2025 reached 24.1 million tons, up 12.9% year-on-year, with exports accounting for 3.15 million tons, an increase of 12.8% compared with 2024.

In the same year, Vietnam’s steel industry also recorded positive outcomes in anti-dumping cases and trade remedy reviews involving steel products in major export markets, including the EU, Canada, Australia, and India.

Vietnamese steel products were subject to anti-dumping duties of 0% or significantly lower margins than those imposed on other countries under investigation. This has enabled Vietnamese steel exporters to maintain a competitive edge and strengthen their position in global supply chains.

In addition, several countries concluded that Vietnam’s steel industry does not operate under non-market economy conditions in investigations such as the EU’s anti-dumping case on hot-rolled coil (HRC) and Canada’s probe into steel strapping.

Once officially issued, VSA said these conclusions would set a positive precedent for future cases in Canada and other markets, not only for steel products but also for Vietnam’s broader export sector.

This includes ongoing investigations into non-market economy status or special market conditions being conducted by Mexico, the EU, and other jurisdictions against Vietnamese steel producers.

Despite the strong growth in steel production and sales in 2025, the industry continues to face multiple challenges.

According to VSA, these include technical barriers related to green standards such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), rules of origin, and the need for stronger cooperation between upstream and downstream producers to develop sustainable supply chains.

Awareness of the green transition remains largely superficial, while implementation has been slow, particularly in terms of investment in technological upgrades and the development of green supply chains.

Meanwhile, the number of trade defense cases involving Vietnam’s steel exports continues to rise, with increasingly complex formats such as dual investigations combining anti-dumping and countervailing duties, or allegations of special market conditions.

These cases involve high legal costs and lengthy proceedings, typically around one year to reach a preliminary conclusion, and in some instances have resulted in outcomes below expectations, including the imposition of high anti-dumping duties.

Growth of 8-10% expected for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, VSA forecasts that Vietnam’s steel industry will grow by 8-10%. Finished steel output is expected to reach approximately 33-34.5 million tons, while domestic steel consumption is projected at around 26 million tons.

Growth is expected to be driven by the implementation of the Government's Resolution No. 01/ND-CP, which outlines key tasks and solutions for the 2026 socio-economic development plan and targets national GDP growth of over 10%, including industrial growth of more than 11%.

Additional momentum will come from increased public investment in infrastructure projects such as expressways and airports, the recovery of residential real estate, and the commissioning of major industrial projects.

As steel production increasingly must meet sustainability and green transition requirements, Vietnamese enterprises are continuing to adopt environmentally friendly production practices as part of global sustainable development strategies. This aligns closely with the Government’s commitment at COP26 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

A notable example is Hoa Phat Group’s groundbreaking in late 2025 of the Hoa Phat Dung Quat Rail and Special Steel Plant, with a total investment of VND10 trillion ($385.66 million) and a designed capacity of 700,000 tons per year.

The facility, located in the central province of Quang Ngai, is equipped with some of the world’s most advanced technologies from Germany’s SMS Group and Primetals Technologies of the UK, including a highly flexible, high-precision universal rolling mill.

This marks Southeast Asia’s first “Made in Vietnam” plant capable of producing steel rails for high-speed railways. The first high-speed railway rails are expected to be rolled out in 2027, positioning Hoa Phat as the first and only company in Southeast Asia able to manufacture this specialized steel, ready to supply major railway infrastructure projects.