2026 a ‘disaster year’ for Vietnam real estate: CEO

2026 will be a “disaster year” for Vietnam’s real estate sector, prompting Quoc Cuong Gia Lai JSC (HoSE: QCG) to adopt a cautious strategy, said Nguyen Quoc Cuong, CEO of the developer.

Speaking at QCG’s 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders (AGM) on Saturday, Cuong painted a bleak outlook for the property market, saying the company expects the year to be marked by multiple headwinds converging at once.

Input costs have surged, property prices remain elevated, purchasing power has weakened, and market conditions have become increasingly unpredictable, Cuong said, noting construction costs alone have risen by 25-30% from 2025.

The introduction of a new land pricing framework is also expected to keep property prices from falling and could push them even higher. Meanwhile, tighter household spending is limiting capital flows into the market.

Although housing supply has improved significantly after legal bottlenecks were removed for many projects, market absorption remains weak nationwide, not only in Ho Chi Minh City, he noted.

The CEO added that the rapid shift in product offerings, from commercial housing to social housing and rental properties, has altered pricing dynamics, buyer behavior and related regulations, prompting many potential buyers to delay purchasing decisions.

Beyond industry-wide challenges, QCG is grappling with its own difficulties. The company achieved about 92% of its 2025 revenue target but fell short of profit expectations set by the board and shareholders. Prolonged legal issues have continued to weigh heavily on operations, Cuong said.

Efforts to resolve outstanding legal matters, particularly the issuance of land-use right certificates for buyers at older projects, remain challenging and have progressed more slowly than anticipated.

Although bank debt has been reduced to around VND91 billion ($3.46 million), the company continues to rely on loans from relatives and major shareholders to fund operations, helping to lower financing costs compared with bank borrowing.

At the same time, QCG is mobilizing resources to fulfill its remaining financial obligations of more than VND2.88 trillion ($109.46 million) related to the Phuoc Kien residential project in HCMC, enabling the company to regain full development rights.

“Taken together, these factors make 2026 a disaster year for the real estate industry rather than a year of opportunity. I simply do not see opportunities in the market this year,” Cuong said.

In response, QCG has opted for a conservative strategy focused on organizational restructuring, strengthening financial metrics and improving corporate governance to position itself for future partnerships with major investors.

For 2026, the company targets revenue of VND2.4 trillion ($91.22 million) and pre-tax profit of VND343 billion ($13.04 million).

Shareholders press for progress on Phuoc Kien project

At the AGM, several shareholders voiced frustration over the slow progress of key projects, particularly the long-delayed Phuoc Kien residential development.

Some argued that the company has become overly cautious and lacks bold initiatives, while its depressed share price continues to undermine investor confidence.

In response, Cuong acknowledged that QCG has deliberately maintained a cautious approach for years. However, he argued that this prudence has enabled the company to weather major crises and maintain stable operations.

The company will continue prioritizing the resolution of legal issues during 2026-2027 rather than pursuing aggressive expansion, he said.

Regarding the stock price, Cuong noted that the company’s market valuation remains well below both its book value and the underlying value of its assets. The leadership expects the share price to better reflect QCG’s intrinsic value once legal obstacles are removed and the company’s reputation improves.

Also speaking at the meeting, Cuong’s mother Nguyen Thi Nhu Loan, a member of QCG’s advisory board, said she understood shareholders’ impatience over the Phuoc Kien project, which has been delayed for decades.

She said retaining the project had not been an easy decision, particularly given the numerous offers the company had received to sell it and recover capital.

“I cannot sell a project for VND1 when I know its true value is VND10 (0.04 US cents),” Loan said.

She described Phuoc Kien as a strategically important asset closely tied to the company’s future, adding that she and QCG’s leadership had worked for years to preserve and protect the project.

On the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), QCG closed Friday at VND13,300 ($0.5) per share.