Vietnam poised for double-digit growth on boom of new industries, reforms: Standard Chartered exec

With breakthrough reforms and strong digital transformation, a double-digit growth scenario in peak years is entirely achievable for Vietnam, said Standard Chartered Vietnam CEO Nguyen Thuy Hanh on sidelines of the “40 years of reform: The leading role of economic groups” conference organized by The Investor on Monday.

What is Standard Chartered’s forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026, following last year’s 8.02% growth?

We forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.7-7% during the 2026-2030 period. However, with breakthrough reforms and strong digital transformation, a double-digit growth scenario in peak years is entirely achievable, driven by the boom of new industries such as data center, semiconductors, electronics and green energy.

Notably, data from Q1/2026 shows that growth has been achieved at 7.8% year-on-year amid the Middle East conflict, including energy price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, reflecting the resilience of the economy.

What are the key factors underpinning such a positive growth outlook for Vietnam?

As an international financial institution with a long-standing presence in Vietnam, Standard Chartered remains optimistic and confident in the country’s medium- and long-term growth prospects.

There are five key pillars supporting our assessment, based on the latest forecasts from Standard Chartered Global Research, reinforcing our confidence in Vietnam’s outlook during this strategic period.

First is the strong GDP growth momentum as mentioned earlier. Another important factor is the recent completion of the country's leadership structure, which is expected to drive growth and reforms, with strategy on achieving high yet sustainable growth.

Second is the rapid expansion of the middle class. By 2030, Vietnam’s middle class is expected to increase to about 20-25 million people, making the country one of Asia’s most dynamic consumer markets and providing a strong boost to financial services, retail, education and healthcare.

Third is Vietnam’s position in global supply chain. Our research estimates export growth could achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 8-10%. Vietnam is gradually shifting from basic goods to higher value-added products. By 2030, high-tech and high-value exports are expected to account for more than 50% of total exports.

Fourth is the upgrade of stock exchange market status. Vietnam has passed the mid-term review on improving accessibility for global investors, and FTSE Russell confirmed in its April 8, 2026 report that Vietnam’s stock exchange market was upgraded from frontier to secondary emerging market status effective September 21, 2026. This upgrade is expected to attract significant international capital inflows.

Fifth is the potential of the green economy and ESG. Investment demand for energy transition in Vietnam is estimated at around $135-150 billion by 2030. This presents a major opportunity for international financial institutions like Standard Chartered to mobilize sustainability financing via diverse range of products such as green loan, sustainable bonds, and carbon credits, etc.

These figures are not just projections on paper but demonstrate the intrinsic strength and adaptability of Vietnam’s economy. Standard Chartered is committed to supporting Vietnam in turning these projections into reality by connecting global financial resources with the country’s development ambitions.

To achieve double-digit growth during 2026-2030, Vietnam will require substantial investment capital. What solutions would you suggest to mobilize sufficient resources?

The Ministry of Finance is finalizing a new growth scenario and adjusting fiscal and monetary policies to maintain a double-digit growth target for 2026. To achieve this target, the remaining quarters of the year would need to grow by over 10%.

To realize double-digit growth in 2026-2030, capital mobilization strategies should clearly differentiate between equity (to build a sustainable foundation) and debt (to provide leverage for scaling up). I would suggest key solutions:

First, attracting increase investment in equity. This is a crucial source to reduce debt pressure and strengthen long-term financial capacity for the economy.

Accelerating equitization and state divestment: Restructure state-owned enterprises alongside stock market listings to mobilize social resources and improve corporate governance to international standards.

Facilitating high-quality FDI and private equity: Focus on strategic investors in high-tech sectors, semiconductors, and green energy, while encouraging private funds to support startups and supporting industries.

Upgrading the stock market: Improve disclosure standards and foreign ownership limits to move Vietnam from frontier to emerging market status, attracting billions of dollars from index funds and major financial institutions around the world.

International Financial Center (IFC): Under the guidance and efforts of the Vietnamese Government, developing a dedicated legal framework aligned with international practices to boost investor confidence and attract both FDI and FII more effectively

Encouraging domestic private investment: Create a transparent business environment to unlock idle capital in the population, converting gold and foreign currency into productive investments via trust funds or real estate investment trusts (REITs)

Second, financing solutions plays a key role as a financial lever for rapid infrastructure development and production expansion.

Leveraging on international syndicated loans: This channel enables Vietnamese firms and financial institutions to access large-scale foreign currency funding from global banks, while enhancing Vietnam’s credit profile. Sustainability-linked loans are becoming a key trend to optimize funding costs.

Developing the corporate bond market: Build a professional bond market with reputable credit rating agencies, prioritizing green bonds for energy transition and circular economy projects. According to Vietnam Bond Market Association’s report, by end-Q3/2025, outstanding corporate bonds reached VND1,270 trillion ($48.24 billion), up 6% from end-2024, but still only 7.4% of total credit in the economy (of which more than 70% is from the banking sector and over 20% from the real estate sector).

Optimizing bank credit: Direct fundings toward key sectors such as manufacturing, exports, and SMEs - the backbone of the economy - while accelerating banking digitalization to reduce costs and improve access.

Optimizing concessional and blended finance: Tap into funding from multilateral institutions (World Bank Group, Asian Development Bank) and Development Finance Institutions and export credit agencies, which often offer long tenors and reasonable interest rates which are suitable for key infrastructure projects.

Promoting public-private partnerships (PPP): Improve legal frameworks for risk-sharing and revenue guarantees to attract commercial banks and international financial institutions to finance large-scale PPP projects such as highways, ports, and digital infrastructure.