Decentralization and the potential for multi-center urban development in HCMC’s satellite areas

If managed well, urban decentralization and multi-center development can ease housing pressures in central HCMC and usher in a more balanced growth phase for the southern region's residential market, write Avison Young Vietnam analysts.

Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau - Ho Chi Minh city’s satellite areas, are emerging in southern Vietnam’s residential market. Long-term prospects of these satellite areas are more exciting post-mergers, accelerating residential relocation and fostering a multi-center urban development model.

Binh Duong, Ba Ria-Vung Tau and HCMC were merged in July to form the new HCMC, while the merger of Binh Phuoc and Dong Nai formed the new Dong Nai province. Long An and Tay Ninh were merged to establish the new Tay Ninh province.

Supply volume and price differentials: primary drivers for residential properties in Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Long An

Unlike the trickle of new launches within central HCMC, the satellite localities are bringing a substantial volume of housing to the market - from apartments and townhouses to villas and land plots - at more accessible price points.

Long An leads in primary supply of land plots and low-rise housing, while Binh Duong dominates newly launched apartments and land inventory.

The price gap with central HCMC is material: land in the city center is roughly twice as expensive; apartments cost about 1.6-2.4 times more; and townhouses/villas vary widely (1.2-7 times). These more affordable options and broader choices make the satellite ring particularly attractive to first-time buyers and middle-income households seeking larger living spaces.

“Projects in Long An and Binh Duong are showing healthy absorption rates and stable liquidity; Dong Nai, despite having large-scale developments, has seen less robust demand and liquidity. In Ba Ria-Vung Tau, demand has recently risen due to the consolidation with HCMC, which in turn will drive property prices,” said David Jackson, principal and CEO at Avison Young Vietnam.

Inter-regional infrastructure and demographic drivers support out-migration

Major regional transport projects - ring roads, expressways and metro lines - are shortening travel times between the city core and satellite zones. Improved accessibility increases land appeal and, in turn, property values. At the same time, rising living costs in the city center are prompting households to consider relocating outward.

Among the provinces adjacent to HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An are key destinations for incoming labor and job growth. One of the key factors driving this labor shift is the ability to attract FDI capital in the above-mentioned localities.

In 2024, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Long An recorded a registered FDI capital higher than the national average ($0.68 million). This is also the group leading in FDI capital growth rate in the year with Binh Duong increasing by 20%, followed by Long An (17%), and Dong Nai (8%).

Growth in job opportunities lead to the rise in migratory increase and boost housing demand, mainly from migrant workers who need to settle down, investors in serviced-apartment for rent, people with low-middle incomes who need social housing or affordable long-term rental housing.

Multi-center urban structure and post-merger outlook

With the post-merger Greater Ho Chi Minh City expanding to over 6,700 square kilometers and a population surpassing 14 million, housing demand is set to remain elevated.

Each satellite region brings distinct advantages. With advantages in population base, land supply, and connectivity, Binh Duong holds potentials for developing a diverse range of housing formats, from commercial housing to land plot, townhouse and villa.

Ba Ria-Vung Tau can capitalize on tourism and second-home trend for condotels and resort villas. Dong Nai and Long An are well-positioned for large-scale, low-rise residential developments thanks to available land and attractive landscapes.

Together, these complementary roles can form a multi-polar urban ecosystem that supports the metropolitan core while diversifying housing and investment options.

“Long An and Binh Duong stand out as promising markets for sustainable growth. Dong Nai is expected to gain momentum once Long Thanh International Airport comes into operation and major highways are completed. Ba Ria-Vung Tau has strong potential to become a major resort and hospitality hub, with growth drivers closely tied to enhanced connectivity and its strategic role as one of the principal sea gateways to the new HCMC,” added Jackson.

Opportunities go hand in hand with challenges. Timely delivery of infrastructure, post-merger planning adjustments and updates in legal frameworks (for example, amendments to the Land Law) can materially affect investor sentiment.

If managed well, urban decentralization and multi-center development can ease housing pressures in central HCMC and usher in a more balanced growth phase for the southern region's residential market.