Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index could surpass 2,000 points in 2026: exec

VN-Index could top 2,000 points next year, said Huynh Minh Tuan, founder of FIDT - a Ho Chi Minh City-based investment consulting firm.

"The Vietnamese economy is entering a phase of exceptional growth, supported by several positive macro indicators," Tuan told the Business Forum 2026 themed “New Growth Space: Opportunities and Strategies” on Wednesday.

The GDP growth target for 2026-2030 is set at the highest level in decades; credit is expanding while lending rates remain low; and public investment is being accelerated, creating spillover effects across multiple sectors, he explained.

Referring to the outlook for VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, Tuan identified three main supporting factors in the medium and long term:

First, the market’s upgrade from "frontier" to "secondary emerging" status by FTSE Russell, effective from September 21 next year, will enhance Vietnam’s image and trigger a wave of global ETF inflows.

"If Vietnam meets MSCI’s criteria for an upgrade, passive investment funds tracking emerging markets could allocate around $10-15 billion into Vietnam’s stock market. From now until then, the market has roughly three years to prepare and elevate itself to a new level,” he noted.

Second, improvements in corporate governance and market transparency will further attract both foreign investors and Vietnamese individuals.

Third, a wave of IPOs from large enterprises expected to go public soon will increase the market’s depth and diversity. Potential names mentioned include VPBankS, TCBS, VPS, Hoa Phat Agriculture, Highlands Coffee, and Bach Hoa Xanh.

Over the past three years, foreign investors have been net sellers, while global indirect capital has mainly flowed into large markets such as the U.S., China, and Japan. "However, upcoming structural changes in listed companies and product quality are expected to draw foreign capital back to Vietnam."

Tuan predicted that the VN-Index could surpass 2,000 points by 2026. However, he emphasized that forecasts are always relative.

“Up to 90% of projections tend to be wrong, but based on an expected 20% increase in EPS in 2025 and a P/E ratio of 17-18 times, the 1,800-point level is achievable. If favorable conditions persist, surpassing 2,000 points in 2026 is entirely possible,” he remarked.

While the outlook is optimistic, experts at the forum also cautioned investors to have clear strategies and strict risk management.

Nguyen Viet Duc, digital business director of VPBank Securities, noted that although 2025 is projected to see strong export growth (around 17%) and credit expansion, 2026 could mark a slower growth phase as supporting factors begin to fade.

Meanwhile, Le Bao Nguyen, deputy CEO of SSID - a strategic technology company and startup incubator, emphasized that investors should adopt a “no leverage” and “steady accumulation” strategy to minimize market risk.

“Each week or month, consistently buy a certain amount of shares to build your portfolio. Over a 10-year period, almost no one loses using this method - I myself have benefited greatly from this approach,” Nguyen added.

VN-Index closed Wednesday at 1,675 points, surging for two consecutive sessions after recording the sharpest decline in its 25-year history on Monday (down by 94.76 points, or 5.47%, to 1,636.43).