Domestic drivers pave the way for VN-Index to surpass 2,000 points: broker

2026 is expected to remain a favorable year for equities investment in Vietnam, as economic growth momentum continues with ample room for expansion, writes Le Duc Khanh, director of research at VPS Securities JSC.

Entering 2026, Vietnam’s stock market stands before numerous growth opportunities as domestic drivers become increasingly evident, ranging from strong GDP growth and stable monetary policy to the market status-upgrading process. Concentrated capital flows are expected to move into large-cap, high-quality stocks, which may continue to lead the VN-Index’s medium- and long-term upward trend.

By the end of 2025, a 41% gain can be considered highly impressive for Vietnam’s stock market. This marked one of the strongest rally phases post the Covid-19 pandemic, reflecting both economic recovery and renewed investor confidence.

The market’s upward momentum is forecast to extend into 2026, supported by positive macroeconomic conditions, accelerated public investment disbursement, improving domestic consumption, and, notably, the official market status upgrade scheduled for September 2026. This process could propel the VN-Index not only beyond the 2,000-point threshold but potentially to even higher levels.

GDP growth remains the primary driver

Vietnam’s economic growth of 8.02% in 2025 is regarded as highly positive and part of a broader cycle moving toward double-digit growth. The year also marked the decisive implementation of a streamlined two-tier government administration (only city/provincial level and ward/communal level with district level being removed), cost-saving measures in the state budget, and policies aimed at stimulating growth.

More decisive policy directions and improved investor confidence - both domestic and foreign - have helped channel capital back into the stock market, despite net foreign selling during the year.

The reciprocal tariff measures announced by the U.S. administration in April 2025 at one point unsettled the global economy, including Vietnam’s. Tariff pressures and uncertainties surrounding global trade temporarily raised inflation concerns, threatening accommodative monetary policies worldwide.

However, a series of negotiations and Vietnam’s swift, flexible policy responses helped ease tariff-related anxieties. At the same time, decisive policy actions were introduced to remove bottlenecks in capital flows to the real estate market and the corporate bond market.

Meanwhile, key sectors such as banking and finance, consumer retail, technology and telecommunications, and oil and gas continued to record solid revenue and profit growth. A favorable macroeconomic environment for economic development is also expected to remain supportive of investment activities.

Interest rate stability is expected to remain a key policy orientation in 2026. Temporary spikes in OMO rates and deposit rates toward the end of 2025 were largely short-term in nature. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice in the second half of 2026, which would encourage central banks - particularly the State Bank of Vietnam - to maintain a stable policy stance, prioritizing economic growth support rather than tightening policy rates.

Overall, 2026 is expected to remain a favorable year for investment, as economic growth momentum continues with ample room for expansion. Increased activity in industrial production, industrial parks, semiconductors, and high technology is also expected to boost industrial real estate and FDI inflows. Consequently, the stock market’s growth momentum is likely to continue to be driven primarily by domestic factors.

The VN-Index could surpass 2,050 points in 2026

Market capitalization has expanded significantly over the past five years. The stock market also showed a highly positive performance in the first two weeks of January 2026, with the VN-Index breaking out on strong liquidity and at times surpassing the 1,900-point peak.

The highlight of this rally was strong buying interest in state-controlled companies, listed state-owned enterprises, leading blue-chip stocks, and key sectors such as banking and finance, utilities, energy and oil and gas, technology and telecommunications, as well as leading consumer retail stocks - all of which recorded rapid price gains within just a few weeks.

This indicates that when favorable market conditions emerge early in the year alongside high trading value and broad-based participation across major sectors, large capital flows are entering the market. Market sentiment is strong, and investor confidence in both the broader economy and the stock market has exceeded expectations. The medium-term upward trend that began with the recovery from the 2022-2023 bottom remains firmly intact.

The market-upgrading story to emerging market status, together with the introduction of new financial products and Vietnam’s increasingly visible growth potential, continues to strengthen. While some stocks have risen sharply in a short period, overall market valuations remain attractive. Vietnam’s stock market is rapidly developing and narrowing the gap with leading markets in the region.

With policy reforms and market upgrades continuing in 2026, Vietnam’s stock market is expected to witness further state divestments, increased foreign ownership limits, development of the foreign exchange market, and the introduction of new trading mechanisms and products to support investors. As a result, 2026 remains a highly promising year for market growth, with the VN-Index likely to reach new highs and fluctuate within the 2,000-2,100-point range.

I believe that sectors such as finance, consumer retail, energy, utilities, industrial real estate, and technology-telecommunications will be prioritized this year.

State-owned enterprise divestment, together with the Politburo's Resolution 79, will further promote the development of SOEs, complementing policies supporting the private sector. Leading companies within each sector are likely to be favored by investors, along with firms that still have foreign ownership room or the potential to be included in indices such as VN30, VN50, VN100, or ETF benchmark baskets. Investment capital is expected to increasingly focus on large-cap, high-quality stocks with remaining foreign ownership capacity.

The investment strategy for 2026 should therefore focus on value, quality, and sector leaders such as GAS (PV Gas), PLX (Petrolimex), VNM (Vinamilk), BID (BIDV bank), VCB (Vietcombank), FPT (FPT Corporation), HPG (Hoa Phat Group), VTP (Viettel Post) , PNJ, and GVR (Vietnam Rubber Group).