Electricity consumption growth lags economic expansion: a positive signal, say experts

Vietnam’s electricity consumption grew more slowly than GDP in 2025, a development experts say reflects improving energy efficiency and a healthier growth model rather than any abnormal divergence.

According to figures released by state utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN), total commercial power sales reached an estimated 287.9 billion kWh in 2025, up 4.9% from the previous year.

That compares with GDP growth of 8.02%, raising questions about a possible mismatch between economic expansion and electricity demand, which have traditionally moved in tandem.

But Ngo Tri Long, former head of the Institute of Price Research under the Ministry of Finance, said the slower growth in power consumption was a positive signal, indicating a shift in Vietnam’s growth structure and more efficient use of energy.

“The fact that electricity growth is lower than GDP growth does not point to an anomaly,” Long was quoted by the government's news portal as saying. “It reflects improvements in growth quality and a gradual move away from an energy-intensive development model, in line with sustainable development goals.”

With electricity sales rising more slowly than GDP, Vietnam’s electricity-to-GDP elasticity in 2025 fell below one, meaning economic output expanded faster than power demand. Long said this was an important indicator of growth quality rather than a supply-demand imbalance in the power sector.

One key factor, he said, was the source of economic growth. In 2025, GDP was driven largely by public investment, particularly large-scale infrastructure projects such as expressways, airports, and major transport works.

"While these projects involve substantial capital spending and contribute significantly to GDP, their electricity consumption during construction is relatively modest compared with energy-intensive manufacturing.

"Electricity use in industrial production still accounts for more than half of Vietnam’s total commercial power consumption. As a result, strong GDP growth led by infrastructure investment does not necessarily translate into a commensurate rise in electricity demand."

Weather conditions also played a role. Long noted that 2025 saw multiple typhoons, floods and prolonged heavy rainfall across parts of northern and central Vietnam, disrupting production and business activities and dampening electricity demand.

At the same time, the year experienced fewer prolonged heatwaves, which in previous years had driven sharp increases in household power use.

Another contributing factor was the rapid expansion of rooftop solar power for self-consumption. More households and businesses have installed rooftop solar systems to meet their own electricity needs, according to Long.

While nationwide data remain incomplete, the power sector estimates self-produced and self-consumed electricity at around 10 billion kWh, equivalent to nearly 4% of total commercial power sales in 2025. This electricity is not recorded in EVN’s sales figures but still supports economic activity.

Over the longer term, Vietnam’s electricity-to-GDP elasticity has been on a steady decline, reflecting improved energy efficiency, the expert noted. The ratio was close to 2 in 2000-2010, indicating heavy reliance on electricity for growth. It fell to 1.86 in 2011-2015, 1.37 in 2016-2020, and about 1.09 in 2021-2024.

By sector, the trend is even clearer. In industry, the largest electricity consumer, elasticity fell to 0.83 in 2021–2024, meaning electricity demand grew more slowly than GDP. Household consumption has shown a similar decline, while services and commerce account for a relatively small share of total electricity demand (8.8-10.5%).

Nguyen Minh Phong, another economist, said the slower rise in electricity use might seem surprising if viewed in isolation, but aligns with a broader trend since 2020.

“This is a positive signal, showing that Vietnam’s economy is becoming less energy-dependent,” Phong told the government's news portal, adding that higher electricity prices also encouraged energy-intensive firms to adopt rooftop solar, upgrade technology, and improve efficiency.

The trend, however, poses new challenges for the power sector, including grid management and ensuring reliable baseload supply as renewable energy accounts for a growing share of generation and weather patterns become more extreme.