Foreign investors’ billion-dollar net selling a drag on Vietnam stock market

Foreign investors have net sold Vietnam stocks worth more than VD36,404 billion ($1.43 billion) so far this year, well above the total of VND22,114 billion ($870 million) sold in 2023.

While the net selling accounts for a very small portion of the total stock market value, it has kept the VN-Index from crossing the resistance mark of 1,300 points, experts say.

Dozens of stock codes have been net sold to the tune of trillions of VND (VND1 trillion = $39.33 million) each.

For instance, foreign investors have net sold Vinhomes (Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange: VHM) shares the most with a total of over VND10,281 billion ($404 million).

Vincom Retail (HoSE: VRE) is also among the top 10 stocks net sold by foreign investors at VND2,400 billion ($94.39 million).

The top net sold codes also include two fund certificates: FUEVFVND of DCVMVMVN DIAMOND - an ETF, (more than VND5,352 billion or $210.5 million); and FUESSVFL of another ETF SSIAM VNFIN LEAD (VND1,883 billion or $74 million).

In the opposite direction, foreign investors have net bought shares of four codes with values topping VND1 trillion each: MWG (VND2,572 billion); BHI (VND1,628 billion); AIC (VND1,263 billion); and IDC (VND1,153 billion).

Data from Yuanta Vietnam shows that the net cash withdrawal of ETFs in Vietnam since the beginning of this year has reached $610.5 million, accounting for nearly 42% of the total net selling of foreign investors this year.

Nguyen The Minh, director of analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities JSC, says the main factor behind strong net selling by foreign investors this year is concern about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining high interest rates and hints that they could go even higher.

Data from the Financial Times shows the options market reflecting a possibility rate of about 20% that the Fed will initiate another interest rate hike in the next 12 months, he noted.

“The Fed’s high interest rate anchor makes the valuation of Vietnam’s stock market and frontier markets less attractive. In addition, the devaluation of local currencies in many markets, including Vietnam, against the USD has led to increased demand to withdraw capital from Vietnam as well as many other countries in the region,” Minh said.

The fact that some stock markets in developed countries have recorded good growth is another reason for foreign investors withdrawing strongly from emerging countries. Doing so increases the effectiveness of their investments and they are less pressured by exchange rates, Minh noted.

He said that although foreign investors do not account for a large proportion of the Vietnamese stock market’s ownership (about 17.2% by end-2023; and in the VN30 group, it is only 25-30%), it needs to be recognized that this group’s continuous net selling is a psychological obstacle preventing the VN-Index from surpassing the 1,300 point mark, according to Minh.

“The net selling value of foreign investors only accounted for about 7-9% of the total market’s transaction value, so it is clear that quantitatively it has no impact, but qualitatively it certainly affects the psychology of individual investors.

“As many Vietnamese individuals are not professional investors, they will certainly wonder why foreign investors are continuously net selling,” he added.

Other experts have pointed out that the VN-Index has maintained a growth rate of nearly 14% since the beginning of the year, providing clear evidence that domestic capital was strong enough to “balance” the net selling momentum of foreign investors.

Other analysts have said that once foreign investors stop or reduce their net selling, the domestic stock market will easily surpass the important resistance mark of 1,300 points.

On the development of foreign capital flows in the coming time, Minh said the difference in interest rates and exchange rates will remain the main factor.

Although there have been predictions that the Fed may raise interest rates further, investors in general still expect lower interest rates, the US economy to have a soft landing, and capital flows to return to emerging markets including Vietnam.

Minh emphasized that in order to retain foreign capital flows in the long term, Vietnam needs to have new stocks. Since a listing wave in 2018, very few enterprises have been equitized and listed on the Vietnamese stock exchange. The market lacks supply and investment products, making it difficult to attract foreign investors, he said.

Wednesday’s session saw foreign investors net buy stocks worth VND20.23 billion ($796,000) after 14 consecutive net selling sessions.