Geopolitical volatility deemed as biggest risk to Vietnam business growth in 2026: survey

Geopolitical tensions are regarded as the biggest threat to business growth in Vietnam this year, according to a survey released alongside the 2026 FAST500 ranking by domestic research firm Vietnam Report.

About 74.1% of businesses surveyed said geopolitical instability and trade tensions could derail growth plans in 2026, reflecting how sensitive Vietnam’s export-oriented economy is to shifts in the global environment.

The findings were published as Vietnam Report unveiled its FAST500 list of the 500 fastest-growing companies.

Data from the ranking show that firms in the list posted an average compound annual revenue growth rate (CAGR) of 23.5% between 2021 and 2024, signaling a modest recovery after several years of pressure from economic volatility and weaker market demand.

Private companies continued to lead growth, with an average revenue CAGR of 24.1%, up 0.6 percentage point from a year earlier. The performance highlights the flexibility of domestic firms in adapting to changes in the business environment.

State-owned enterprises followed with an average growth rate of 23.7%, a sharp improvement of 6.2 percentage points from the previous year. The increase partly reflects progress in restructuring efforts and improvements in management efficiency within the state sector.

Foreign-invested companies recorded an average CAGR of 20.9%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year. Although growth in the FDI sector remained below that of domestic firms, the improvement indicates a recovery trend despite fluctuations in global capital flows and trade conditions.

The survey also showed that while 63% of businesses met or exceeded their targets last year, the share of companies falling short of revenue and profit goals rose compared with 2024. Analysts attributed the shift partly to higher growth expectations after a strong rebound year, as well as widening performance gaps among companies operating in the same macroeconomic environment.

Vietnam’s business landscape has also seen a sharper shakeout. About 297,500 companies entered or resumed operations during the year, while more than 227,200 exited the market, up 15% from 2024. The dual trend suggests growth is becoming more uneven, accompanied by stronger competitive pressure.

Geopolitical risks have increasingly become a structural factor in business planning rather than a temporary shock. In a deeply integrated economy like Vietnam, global instability can quickly affect companies through export orders, logistics costs, capital flows, and exchange rates. Tensions in the Middle East, for example, have highlighted how geopolitical developments can directly influence energy markets, supply chains, and investor sentiment.

The second-largest challenge cited by businesses is volatility in energy and raw material prices, chosen by 70.4% of respondents. Rising input costs remain a major concern for Vietnamese firms, many of which operate with relatively thin profit margins, meaning even small price fluctuations can significantly affect profitability.

Legal pressure and compliance with new regulations were also identified as notable challenges, with roughly one-third of companies highlighting regulatory changes as a key concern. While Vietnam has been updating its legal framework to improve the business environment, the lag between the issuance of laws and detailed implementation guidelines can create adjustment difficulties for companies.

Against this backdrop, businesses are adjusting their growth strategies. About 64.3% of firms said their top priority for 2026 is maintaining stable growth while optimizing operational efficiency.

The survey also found that companies expect artificial intelligence (AI) to significantly reshape certain sectors in the coming year. Financial services and banking were identified as the industries most likely to be affected by AI, with 40.7% of respondents expecting a strong impact and 19.4% believing the technology could fundamentally transform how the sector operates.